	The Xiangshan Forum: Understanding China’s Global South Strategy Narrative
	September 24, 2024

Lee, Sang Hyun

Senior Research Fellow, Sejong Institute | shlee@sejong.org

| The 11th Xiangshan Forum

The 11th Xiangshan Forum was held in Beijing from September 12 to 14. First launched in 2006, the Xiangshan Forum is a multilateral security dialogue modeled after the Shangri-La Dialogue held annually in Singapore, and can be described as the Chinese version of the Shangri-La Dialogue. The theme of this year’s forum was “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future.” This year, 1,800 participants attended the forum, including representatives from around 100 countries and international organizations, as well as scholars from various fields. The U.S. selected Michael Chase to attend the forum. As Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, Chase is a higher-ranking official than last year's selection.

In his congratulatory speech delivered by a representative, Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out that the world is undergoing significant changes unseen in a century, and stressed that at a time when people around the world expect security and stability, China has been making consistent efforts to put forward its Global Security Initiative (GSI), gather diverse opinions, eliminate the root causes of international conflict, and improve global security governance. Xi expressed hope that this forum will continue to uphold the spirit of equality, openness, inclusiveness, and mutual exchange, therefore fostering broad consensus and deepening mutual trust, and making new and greater contributions to collectively addressing global security challenges and promoting the building of a community with a shared future for humankind.

The three-day-long forum consisted of four plenary sessions each covering a different topic – Security Cooperation for Asia-Pacific Prosperity and Stability, Multipolarity and the Evolving International Order, Global South and Peaceful Global Development, and International Mechanisms and Global Security Governance.

On the first day of the forum, a series of high-end interviews were held on topics such as the Global Security Initiative, the Global South, international norms, security in the Asia-Pacific, U.S.-China relations, and European security, while special sessions focused on AI security and perspectives of young military officers and scholars on international conflicts. The second day included the opening ceremony and two plenary sessions, followed by concurrent panels in the afternoon that addressed topics such as ASEAN and Asia-Pacific security architecture, Northeast Asian security, European security, Middle East peace initiatives, U.S.-China relations, emerging technologies, international arms control, and military conflict and humanitarian crises. After dinner, several small, in-depth expert meetings were held as parallel sessions, lasting late into the evening. Topics included maritime security, space security and peaceful use of outer space, military applications of AI and risk management, terrorism prevention, the narratives and communication strategies of modern warfare, and peace in Africa and China-Africa security cooperation. On the third day, two plenary sessions were held, focusing on the Global South and global governance issues.

| The Multipolar World Order and the Global South

To sum up this extensive agenda, China seems to believe that the current international order has shifted to a fully multipolar system, and that now is the right time for China to lead this transition. Following the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, we are, in fact, witnessing a more multipolar world that can no longer be led by the U.S. or the West. In the “Report on the Work of the Government” delivered at China’s 2024 National People’s Congress (held from March 4 to 11), Xi Jinping’s leadership highlighted a shift in China’s foreign policy, presenting a new multipolar world order in contrast to the existing U.S.-centered unipolar system. The report in particular praised China’s significant contributions to fostering global cooperative partnerships and resolving international and regional issues by fully implementing major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics. Moreover, China declared that it will lead efforts to reshape the existing U.S.- and Western-led international order, in collaboration with not only Russia but also Global South countries, to establish a more equal and orderly multipolar world order.

Within this multipolar order, China plans to reform the global governance system dominated by the U.S. and the West by joining hands with numerous countries in the Global South. It is through this narrative linking China and the Global South, that Xi Jinping has proposed the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI).

President Xi first proposed the GDI in a virtual address at the UN General Assembly in September 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the GSI during a virtual keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia in April 2022. In March 2023, he also proposed the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), which centers on respecting the diversity of civilizations and promoting coexistence between civilizations. These announcements kicked off the implementation of China’s three major global initiatives on development, security, and civilization.

The GDI aims to promote post-COVID recovery and seize opportunities so as to open up a bright future for achieving common sustainable development and building a global development community. The GSI was presented by Xi Jinping as a response to the U.S.‘s Indo-Pacific Strategy. At the time of the announcement, Xi emphasized respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in internal affairs, respect for the legitimate security concerns of all countries, opposition to Cold War mentality and unilateralism, rejection of bloc politics and confrontation between camps, and upholding the principle of indivisible security. Later, in February 2023, China further developed and systematized the initiative when the foreign minister at the time, Qin Gang, presented “The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper” at the Lanting Forum hosted by the China Public Diplomacy Association under the theme "The Global Security Initiative: China's Proposal for Solving Security Challenges," officially establishing and introducing China’s vision for international security. The GCI critiques Western-led civilization and promotes a view of civilization led by China. At its core, the initiative advocates for respecting the diversity of world civilizations; upholding equality, mutual learning, dialogue, and inclusiveness among civilizations; and proposes a new vision of civilization in which cultural exchange transcends estrangement, mutual learning transcends conflict, and coexistence transcends feelings of superiority.

Among these initiatives, the most crucial are the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI). Most countries in the Global South are poor and in a security deficit, facing persistent internal and external conflicts, both large and small. For many of these countries, security and development are pressing issues; they are matters of life and death. If a powerful country like China offers substantial resources to help solve these urgent issues, few are in a position to refuse. At the forum, Congo’s Defense Minister bluntly stated, “No security, no development.“ In other words, without security, there can be no development, and without development, there can be no security. For countries where security and development are pressing issues, American and Western values such as democracy, human rights, and a rules-based international order can ring hollow. With this in mind, it becomes clear why the U.S. and the West have floundered in the narrative war against China.

The U.S. and the West have recently begun to recognize the importance of the Global South and are paying more attention to the region. However, their current narrative seems unlikely to resonate with Global South countries. When President Xi first introduced the GSI and GDI, the concepts were critiqued as overly abstract and superficial — nothing more than idealistic rhetoric. However, attending the Xiangshan Forum has revealed how well the Chinese narrative is working for Global South countries The world order is changing much faster and more significantly than those in the Global West may realize. The order of the six simultaneous interpretation channels provided at the forum — Chinese, Arabic, English, French, Russian, and Spanish — suggests which regions and audiences China values most.

On the surface, the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative contain extremely ideal and admirable concepts. However, the GDI has been linked to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, leading to criticism for causing debt traps for aid recipients. Meanwhile, the GSI emphasizes respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity for all countries and adherence to the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter. However, contradictory to these principles, China has made unilateral claims to territorial waters in the South China Sea, rejected the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on its territorial dispute with the Philippines, and remained silent on Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.

| Implications for South Korea

In recent years, the global geopolitical landscape has become increasingly volatile. In addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, attacks by Houthi rebels on civilian ships in the Red Sea, the possibility of tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, and the heightened sense of crisis on the Korean Peninsula, cooperation between China, North Korea, and Russia is dragging Northeast Asia back to the Cold War era. Within an already fragmented world order, the current international environment is driving the emergence of new blocs, and at the same time, various conflicts and clashes across the globe are leading to increased risk and uncertainty. The world is now divided into three camps: the Global West, centered around the U.S. and other Western countries; the Global East, led by China and Russia; and the Global South, which includes non-Western developing countries such as India and Brazil, as well as other unaligned nations. At the core of the current international order is the competition between the Global West and Global East, in particular U.S.-China relations. For the foreseeable future, the U.S.-China relationship is likely to remain adversarial across all facets from politics and economics to ideology and systems, with both sides actively engaging in competitive coalition-building efforts to win over the Global South.

In this geopolitical environment, China is seeking to promote a multipolar world order through its strategic partnership with Russia, while also strengthening dialogue and cooperation on both traditional and non-traditional security issues with the Global South, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The question remains, however, whether China can sustain its three major initiatives (GDI, GSI, and GCI) in the face of slowing domestic demand and U.S. export controls.

South Korea is one of the best examples of a country that has successfully addressed the security and development issues commonly faced by members of the Global South. Following the Korean War, South Korea transformed itself from one of the poorest nations in the world into an OECD member state, achieving the "Miracle on the Han River" through the Saemaul Undong (New Village Movement). Moreover, through managing the adversarial division of the Korean Peninsula following the Korean War, South Korea has acquired unique expertise in defense and security. As a result, Korea is among the world’s best in terms of defense capabilities and is a leader in advanced technology sectors like semiconductors. South Korea should leverage its expertise in the security and development strategies needed by countries in the Global South in order to effectively engage with the region. Unlike China, which can provide large-scale financial assistance through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or other infrastructure development projects, South Korea's strength lies in its ability to share knowledge that can help members of the Global South forge their own paths to security and development. Utilizing these strengths to increase the scope of engagement with Global South countries should be South Korea’s strategic priority moving forward. For this strategy to succeed, it is crucial that South Korea craft a compelling narrative grounded in its own historical experiences that resonates with the countries of the Global South.