Another Nuclear Test on the Korean Peninsula?

North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests so far and is now estimated to have almost completed basic nuclear weapons technology. However, many experts believe that a seventh nuclear test may be needed to eventually confirm and miniaturise a North Korean nuclear warhead. Therefore, at least on the Korean Peninsula, there is a very high possibility of a nuclear test.

Today, we know that nuclear weapons can be developed even without a physical nuclear test given the advancements in nuclear weapons design technology and the computer simulation of tests. However, a nuclear test remains the most reliable method to verify the final performance of a nuclear weapon. Therefore it is expected that North Korea will conduct a physical nuclear test on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is already subject to various international sanctions, including those imposed by the United States and the UN Security Council, and additional sanctions in the event of another nuclear test will not have a significant actual impact. It is assumed that North Korea is weighing the timing of a nuclear test while monitoring its domestic timetable and external conditions.

If nuclear tests are to be eliminated in the current international order, the norm of nuclear non-proliferation must be firmly reestablished. The key to achieving this goal lies in existing nuclear weapons states agreeing and keeping their promises under the NPT. Unless nuclear powers fulfill their obligations to reduce their nuclear arsenal, it will become increasingly difficult to stop other countries with nuclear aspirations.​ 

https://www.apln.network/analysis/the-pulse/15th-international-day-against-nuclear-tests

Sang Hyun Lee, Comments on the 15th International Day against Nuclear Tests, August 29, 2024​