The Anatomy of South Korea’s Nuclear Latency Debate

South Korea’s nuclear latency discourse is not a single push toward nuclear weapons but a four-strand spectrum ranging from alliance-reassurance to risk-tolerant hedging. These four strands are (1) nuclear lacklusters, who are risk-averse and prioritize the U.S. alliance, (2) nuclear bargainers, who use latency rhetoric instrumentally to extract stronger U.S. commitments, (3) nuclear entrepreneurs, who seek capability space through nonproliferation-compatible, phased, alliance-managed cooperation, and (4) nuclear opportunists, who are most willing to accept alliance and international friction to move toward a practical nuclear option. Once conceptual clarity and real constraints (legal, technical, economic, and political) are applied, most plausible policy outcomes for Seoul remain within the extended deterrence framework. While Seoul may at times appear lackluster in its reliance on extended deterrence, such an image should not be mistaken for the policy option it is most likely to implement. 

조비연 외 공저｜​2026년 6월 15일

​https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-anatomy-of-south-koreas-nuclear-latency-debate/​​