2023 China's Situation and Prospects for Korea-China Relations

Chung, JaeHung

(jameschung@sejong.org)

Director of Center for Chinese Studies

The Sejong Institute

     With the recent 20th Party Congress, President Xi Jinping firmly established himself into prolonged one-man rule as the third leader following Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. In particular, with the 20th Party Congress, the Chinese Communist Party has announced its plan to achieve socialist modernization by 2035, and the realization of Socialism with Chinese characteristics in 2049.

     Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has proposed a foreign strategy for 2023 to further expand the 3 principles of Chinese diplomatic strategy to strengthen unity, cooperation with developing countries, and strengthening their rights and interests.

     After the China-Russian Strategic security-economic cooperation with the 20th party congress, the full-fledge of Xi Jinping's new internal and external policy began to have a direct impact on the regional situation on the Korean Peninsula.

     Reflecting this, President Xi Jinping officially visited Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Middle East, to hold the first bilateral-multilateral meeting with leaders of 17 Arab countries, and discussed various large-scale infrastructure development, information, and energy businesses to proceed with competition strategy against the U.S. In particular, the Sino-Russian Navy conducted the "Joint Sea 2022" exercise in the East China Sea from December 21 to 27 for a large-scale joint blockade, air defense, and anti-submarine drills. The exercise included the northern Chinese regional command in charge of the Korean Peninsula and the eastern regional command navy in charge of Taiwan, and the Pacific Fleet of Russia, demonstrating the strengthening of strategic cooperation between China and Russia in a new era.

     After the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping's leadership plans to strengthen strategic security-economic cooperation with Russia, expanding its influence to Eurasia, ASEAN, and the Middle East, while securing its allies against Taiwan to promote regional stability by adhering "One-China Principle. As competition between the U.S. and China is in full swing after Ukraine War, the international order faces rapid changes along with the unsettled situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula compared to the past, causing direct challenges to Korea-Chinese relations.

     It is likely to become a challenge for Korea-Chinese relations if NATO led by the U.S. and Indo-Pacific allies are newly united toward Ukraine, and Taiwan and the North Korean nuclear crisis against SCO led by China and Russia. Therefore Korea requires a strategic and flexible balanced perspective that differs from the simple bilateral relationship perspective from the past. Moreover, Korea-China relations need to proceed as a substantial bilateral relationship with constant communication from various levels to develop a new and creative policy for mutual benefit.