Current Status and Future Prospect of
Strategic Competition between the U.S. and China

[Current Issues and Policies 2019-13]

Dr. Zhang Tousheng

Sejong-KT&G China Fellow, the Sejong Institute

Senior Fellow, China Foundation for International and Strategic Studies

zhangtuosheng@263.net

Executive Summary:

Until now, the conflict between the U.S. and China has been limited to security and human rights issues. But it is expanding into various aspects and showing a long-lasting, intensifying trend. There are three reasons for such transition. First, the perception of the U.S. towards China has changed since the gap of state power between the U.S. and China decreased. Second, the U.S. policy toward China has been specified due to the spread of anti-globalization within the U.S. Third, China has become a target of strategic competition for the U.S. due to the combination of China’s aggressive foreign policy and political and social division of the U.S. Many people consider the conflict between China and the U.S. similar to that between the US and USSR during the Cold War period. But the US and China has received a considerable amount of benefits as competitors under identical international system. First, the degree of interdependence between the economies of the two countries is fairly high, and the relationship between the two nations’ science and technology is pretty close. Second, there is a need for the two states to build mutual cooperation mechanism against global challenge from nontraditional security areas. Third, both nations support peace and security desire to avoid military conflict.

There are two scenarios regarding the prospect of strategic competition between the US and China. First scenario is the possibility of a new cold war initiated by ill competition resulting from differing views. Though there is a low possibility of the first scenario to be realized, three current situations are causing the ground risky. Second, though the conflict may become vigorous, the situation can continuously be under control, which might lead to a competition in good faith. And as a result, the relation between the U.S. and China will gradually become stable and create new interactions. In the end, there will be a new form of bilateral relationship through cooperation. Considering various situations, there is a high possibility that the U.S.-China competition will go through the second scenario. If that is the case, the U.S. will continue its relative superiority while China makes its peaceful rise.