Results of the 2019 European Parliament Election
and the Future of European Integration

European Democracy, the Ninth Experiment

The European Parliamentary elections were held from May 23 to 26, 2019. European Parliamentary elections are truly an international and comparative political experiment, as 571 members of a transnational parliament are elected from 28 European nations with an aggregate population of 500 million.

Since the first election in 1979, European Parliamentary elections have been held every five years, marking the ninth election in May 2019. During the course of its history, Europe has transformed from its limited and functional past as the “European Economic Community” to an integrated political community as the European Union. Member states tripled from its six founding states to twenty-eight in 2019.

Europe has evolved into a political union. In the economic sector, it assures free trade and investment, and movement of labor, and the role of Europe has expanded into political, diplomatic, judicial and environmental sectors. Now, the European Parliament is actively involved in collective decision-makings and monitors the execution by the Commission. The European Parliament has blossomed into a true supranational legislature.

Downfall of Traditional Moderates and Emergence of New Parties

A general review of the 2019 elections is that the moderate right-wing Christian Democrats and the moderate left-wing Social Democrats, which traditionally form the dominant moderate alliance, have met a downfall. These political parties had been regarded as the stabilizing “weight” of European politics, because they have historically supported European integration. In the 2019 election, the European People’s Party and the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) lost significantly, losing the majority (352/751 seats).

On the other hand, two new political factions have emerged. Radical right-wing nationalists, who argue against European integration and support more political power at the national level, form one faction. Greens, European Free Alliance and Liberal Democrats form the other faction, which I call “New Powers.” Nationalists and Populists have distinct, varying characteristics, and cannot form a supranational coalition at the European level. In reality, they are divided mainly into three parties: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), and Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD).  Greens and Liberal Democrats have a long history in the European political arena, but they have always been in the periphery, being a minor party. With the results of this election, they have emerged as a new mainstream player.

Another positive aspect of the election is that voter turnout exceeded 50% for the first time, indicating that democratic representation of the European Parliament has been enhanced.

Future of European Integration

The most significant innovation in the European Parliament is the principle that the President of the European Commission is nominated from the largest party. Accordingly, Jean-Claude Juncker of the European People’s Party (EPP) took office as President in 2014. We must keep a close eye on whether this principle will settle as the norm as the pattern repeats in 2019. Negotiations at different levels of inter-government and inter-party relations are expected in the following months.

Moreover, the composition of the European Commission also needs to consider the balances between left vs. right wing, big vs. small power, wealthy vs. poor nation, North vs. South, male vs. female members of the organization.

Nevertheless, the biggest variable in the future of European integration is Brexit. The massive divide of public opinion in the U.K., as evidenced by election results, makes it hard for anyone to predict the outcome. In 27 other European states, political division and diversity also gained momentum. Pro-integration, neo-moderates and radical nationalists have both gained popularity, leading to severe political polarity. Some experts interpret this as a positive sign that active politicization on the issue of European integration will lead to healthy democratic debate between supporters and opponents of EU integration.