2023 International Economy Outlook

Lee SeungJoo

(seungjoo@cau.ac.kr)

Professor of ChungAng University

     In 2023, global trade is expected to slow down to 1% due to a combination of various components such as a trade war, a COVID-19 blockade policy, and a two-circulation policy. In 2021, there was a reversal in which the size of U.S.-China trade increased again, but the U.S. dependence on trade with China decreased from 22% in 2018 to 18% in 2022. Changes in U.S.-China trade relations have a significant impact on global trade. First of all, as a result of the US's management of trade with China, global trade value excluding China increased by more than 38% compared to 2018.

     The gap in China's decline in exports to the U.S. was filled by Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Taiwan. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China technology competition is expected to increase uncertainties in the global economic order by promoting the "decoupling of key high-tech technologies" at the technology level while promoting supply chain reorganization at the industrial level.