The Third DPRK-PRC Summit: Seoul’s Strategic Contemplation and Response

No. 2018-34(June 21, 2018)

Dr. Chung Jae Hung

Research Fellow, Department of Security Strategy Studies

The Sejong Institute

jameschung@sejong.org

North Korea’s Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong-un held the third summit with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 19th, visiting Beijing. The three meetings between the two leaders—that occurred within three months, Beijing in March, Dalian in May, and Beijing again—have marked the closeness unprecedented in the 69-year history of DPRK-China relations. At the third summit with Kim Jong-un, President Xi expressed, he was “pleased to see the important summit between Comrade Chairman and U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore achieve principled consensus and positive results in realizing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and establishing a lasting peace mechanism on the Peninsula.” He also added, “[n]o matter how the international and regional situations change, the firm stance of the CPC and the Chinese government on consolidating and developing the relations with the DPRK remains unchanged, the Chinese people's friendship with the DPRK people remains unchanged, and China's support for the socialist DPRK remains unchanged." In response, Chairman Kim underlined the traditional friendship between the two countries, saying that ‘he would closely cooperate with the Chinese comrades at the same staff in the historic journey of defending socialism and opening up a new future of the Korean Peninsula and the region, and fully discharge his responsibility and role to protect genuine peace.’  

On the core agenda of this third DPRK-PRC summit—the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the peace regime—, China reiterated its commitment to assume the most reliable patron role for North Korea. President Xi voiced China’s active support for North Korea’s position and commitment to denuclearization of the Peninsula and expressed that China will continue to play a constructive role for this end. Kim Jong-un replied that he is “much pleased with and values the recently strengthened strategic cooperation between the two parties and the mutual confidence getting further deepened, he expressed the determination and will to further develop the closer relations of friendship, unity and cooperation between the two parties and the two peoples of the DPRK and China” in addition to the point that “beneficial views on a series of issues of mutual concern including the prospect for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula were exchanged and a shared understanding on the discussed issues achieved.”

The two countries reaffirmed their denuclearization principle—suspension-for-suspension, dual-track approach, and progressive-synchronous action—and had a comprehensive discussion on North Korea’s denuclearization process and bilateral economic cooperation among others. Especially, North Korea manifested the firm resolve to approach all affairs surrounding the Korean Peninsula with progressive and synchronous principle through close and detailed consultation with China such as declaring the end of the Korean War, establishing a peace mechanism, implementing inspection-verification of the nuclear-related installations, lifting sanctions, providing economic aid, normalizing U.S.-North Korea relations, etc. Particularly, the two leaders told that they discussed issues to enhance bilateral strategic and tactical cooperation under a new political environment on June 20. The two countries are likely to take a united stance on strategy and tactics regarding matters such as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, regime guarantee, the declaration to end the Korean War, peace accord, and bilateral economic cooperation.

Meanwhile, President Trump reportedly vowed to modify the armistice agreement in exchange for North Korea’s complete denuclearization to Kim Jong-un after the summit between the two leaders. He decided to suspend Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise scheduled in August and Secretary Pompeo stated, “He[Kim Jong-un] has made very clear his commitment to fully denuclearize his country. … In return for that, the President has committed to making sure that we alter the armistice agreement, provide the security assurances that Chairman Kim needs.” North Korea already announced the closure of ballistic missile engine test site and the U.S. made a preemptive move of suspending the ROK-U.S. joint military exercise.

Thanks to the amicable atmosphere between North Korea and the U.S., the controversy over CVID that some concern is prospected to be resolved through gradual confidence-building measures between the two countries.

Until now, China maintained that the North Korean nuclear issue cannot be resolved by unilateral concession or sacrifice from one side and that it can only be resolved when North Korea and the U.S. truly develop bilateral ties along with the removal of military threats and hostile policy against North Korea. Accordingly, China will actively urge the two sides to implement the Chinese style of common security, ‘freeze-for-freeze’ and ‘dual track’ approach, instead of the zero-sum measures which neglects security concerns of others, while emphasizing continuous dialogue and communications to foster an amicable relations between North Korea and the U.S. and North Korea and South Korea. Through this, China will expand its influence, safeguarding its core interests and assuming its role as a responsible power as the stakeholder in the Korean Peninsula affairs and regional stabilizer in Northeast Asia. China already proclaimed the strategic initiative of building a socialist power by 2050 and raised the goal of extricating from the U.S.-led regional order and establishing a new China-led order.

In other words, it tendered the transition from a big power to a strong power, manifesting strong commitment to realizing the new regional order by 2050 through the promotion of more active diplomacy and expansion of influence. Hence, North Korea and China appear to strengthen bilateral strategic and tactical coordination. Therefore, it is urgent for the South Korean government to formulate a new policy alternative of proactively responding to its political surroundings where rapid change unravels. After three bilateral summits, North Korea and China already have recovered bilateral relations at a hurried pace. Thus, bilateral economic cooperation, investment, and human exchanges are likely to follow in earnest as North Korea decidedly stated its determination to denuclearize and the U.S. and North Korea reached an agreement on denuclearization. Especially, as the entourage following Kim Jong-un at the third summit with Xi Jinping included Premier Pak Pong-ju, who oversees the North Korean economic policy, and Vice-chairman of the Central Committee Pak Thae-song, supervises the country’s science and education policy, the summit appears to have touched on economic assistance and investment, and bilateral cooperation in pursuant to the early measures of denuclearization. On June 12, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang stated, “China always believes that sanction itself is not the end, and the Security Council’s actions should support and conform to the diplomatic dialogue and the endeavor for the denuclearization of the Peninsula at this point” at the regular press conference. Since Chairman Kim vowed to end the byungjin line and strongly highlighted the focus on economic development, bilateral economic exchanges are expected to gradually increase.

After the three summits with North Korea, China began to prepare close coordination measures on Korean Peninsula affairs, shoring up its relations with North Korea to speed up the resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue. China’s major experts on Korean Peninsula already began to highlight that the international community should extricate from the Cold War mentality on North Korea, alleviate economic sanctions, and engage in economic cooperation as North Korea’s policy priority lies in economic development and improvement of people’s livelihoods. Furthermore, China appears to pursue the resumption of the six-party talks in pursuant to the September 19 Joint Statement in 2005 to promote denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula since the DPRK-U.S. summit. Especially to smoothly resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, Beijing believes in the rapid resumption of the six-party talks as intricate and complex problems such as relieving North Korea’s security concern, lifting sanctions against North Korea, providing economic aid, establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula lie ahead.

Eventually, the South Korean government is required to take a bold policy adventure and transition, pursuing the multilateral peace and security consultative body in Northeast Asia such as ROK-U.S.-China trilateral dialogue, ROK-DPRK-U.S.-China quadrilateral dialogue, and six-party talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and draw substantial economic cooperation regarding North Korea. In an interview with Russian media outlets ahead of his visit to Russia, President Moon said that once an inter-Korean peace regime is established, this should be further developed into a multilateral peace and security mechanism in Northeast Asia in the mid-to-long term. China already has actively promoted ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and the South Korean government has set forth the New Northern Policy and New Southern Policy as its new foreign strategy. Provided that North Korea’s denuclearization process embarks on a virtuous cycle, the two Koreas and China could initiate economic cooperation and establish fundamental infrastructure and ultimately drive toward lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Through this, it is essential to establish a sustainable and perpetual peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and institutionalize a multilateral peace and security mechanism in Northeast Asia and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula, focusing on geoeconomics rather than geopolitics.