The Yoon Suk-yeol administration's China Policy: Challenges and Tasks 

Chung Jae-hung 

(jameschung@sejong.org)

Research Fellow, 

the Sejong Institute

English Abstract

Since Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, various analyses and evaluations have been made on Sino-Russian relations. China and Russia are expected to at least continue their close response and cooperation not only in strategic security cooperation but also in all areas. China's Xi Jinping leadership recognizes five regions as possible global geopolitical flashpoints: 1. Ukraine 2. Afghanistan 3. the South China Sea 4. the Taiwan Strait 5. the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, the second great game between the U.S. (the West) and China (Russia) might be inevitable if not managed properly. In particular, the Biden administration of the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan under changing international conditions, apparently an attempt by the U.S. to strategically respond to China's military and security capabilities in the region, which covers the Taiwan Strait. 

Currently, the United States does not provide direct military support to Ukraine. Although conflicts between the U.S. and China could break out in the South China Sea, there is little room for an all-out war. As ASEAN members of Southeast Asia seek to maintain their own regional centrality and not get involved in the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, accordingly, the prevailing view is that conflicts are less likely to occur than in the Taiwan Strait. China has insisted that the Taiwan Strait issue is a "core interst" that it cannot make concessions on and has made strong statements every day, taking strong measures. In addition, as the North Korean nuclear issue could change fluidly depending on South Korea's strategic response, South Korea needs a more strategic and flexible response. As neither the U.S. nor China wants a military clash in the region, it is time for Korea to take a balanced and sensible response more than ever.

The new Yoon Suk-yeol administration should analyze the various and complex challenges facing Korea-China relations in a more accurate and objective manner, not arbitrarily judge, and come up with countermeasures immediately. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between South Korea and China. South Korea and China need to expand their common denominator to meet strategic cooperation partner goals. In order to prevent the escalation of strategic competition between the U.S. and China from spreading to the Korean Peninsula due to changes in the international situation after the Ukraine crisis, strategic concerns and prompt policy responses are urgently needed. In the future, in order to be in line with South Korea's international status, which is much higher than in the past, the Yoon administration should create strategic space for cooperation, competition, and confrontation with China.​