Geopolitical conflict between Western Europe and Russia and the Ukraine crisis 

Chung Eunsook 

Director of the Department of Security Strategy Studies, 

The Sejong Institute 

(chunges@sejong.org) 

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the former Soviet Union. The collapse of the Berlin Wall marks the 32nd anniversary. On top of the pandemic effect, the geopolitical conflicts between China, Russia and the West (U.S., NATO, and EU) as of the end of 2021 do not make the international security situation easier. Above all, the military threat from China and Russia, the two authoritarian powers in Asia and Europe, is increasing. Military tension is rising around the Taiwan Strait and the Ukrainian border. Taiwan and Ukraine have unique relations with China and Russia, respectively. Meanwhile, the Biden government is now actively seeking multilateral and bilateral measures to curb military threats and aggression from China against Taiwan and from Russia against Ukraine.

This paper focuses on the increasingly tense military tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and briefly on the geopolitical conflicts between the United States and Russia, the West and Russia. This is directly related to the security and stability of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), which has 30 members, including the United States and Canada, and the EU (European Union), which has 27 members. In itself, there are many implications for the Taiwan Strait and the international order. With the 2014 annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and rebel support, the West (U.S., EU, NATO) has been focusing on economic sanctions against Russia, deployment of swift response forces in the eastern region, and strengthening deterrence in the Black Sea. At that time, the U.N. General Assembly immediately issued a resolution condemning the annexation of Crimea.

Since last month (November), Russian and military equipment have been concentrated in the border area of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies are sharing satellite photos and local movements with European allies. Currently, about 70,000 troops are expected to move to major strategic points along the border with tanks and artillery, and will expand to 170,000 as early as January next year (2022). Meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs (Riga, 11.30-12.1), of which U.S. Secretary of State Blinken attended, promised to reaffirm Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and warn Russia. The West is eager to understand Moscow's intentions, and Ukraine, NATO's partner, is demanding a preemptive or forceful response from NATO to Russia's internal destabilization operations before a military invasion.

Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe (about three times the size of the Korean Peninsula), has a population of 44 million and a military force of about 200,000 troops. To the east, it borders Russia (about 2,000 kilometers). The West and Ukraine are traumatized by Russia's violation of Ukraine's territorial respect, through the so-called "hybrid war" (a war of military and non-military strategies), that happened seven years ago (2014).

In late 2013, pro-Russian President Yanukovych suddenly decided to stop signing a cooperative agreement with the EU and fled to Russia in the face of violent demonstrations. In March 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, a civil war broke out between the eastern region (Donetsk and Luhansk), which killed more than 10,000 people and pro-Russian rebels. In July of the same year, 298 people were killed when a Malaysian airliner was shot over Donetsk on its way from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. Trials continue in Europe, but no clear investigation has yet been made. Despite the signing of the Minsk Protocol (2015) between Ukraine and Russia under French and German arbitration, sporadic fighting is taking place around the separation line between Russia-supported rebels and Ukrainian government forces. In short, the eastern region is not subject to the administrative power of the government. For current President Zelensky, who promised to end the civil war in the 2019 presidential election, the recent pandemic economy and the offensive nature of the Russian military have become a test at home and abroad.

As of December 2021, the Kremlin maintains its ambiguous intent on attack. In fact, what caused problems are (i) NATO leaders' decision to invite Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 and (ii) the U.S. and NATO's supply of weapons to Ukraine and military exercises in Ukraine which increased the threat at the western border. The disintegration of the Soviet Union gave the new Ukrainian elites the dream of joining the EU and NATO. However, to Putin, who emphasized the revival of the Soviet Union's status as a great power, it is considered the last buffer with the West.

Moreover, there is a presence of 17% of Russians living mainly in the eastern part of Ukraine's territory. Russia's 2008 military operation in Georgia also supported recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.

At the Stockholm annual European Security Cooperation Council (OSCE) ministerial meeting on December 2, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia would soon propose a kind of European security treaty that NATO would not accept Ukraine as a member.

At the annual Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE, 57 nations) ministerial meeting on December 2^nd in Stockholm, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that Russia would soon propose a draft European security treaty that NATO would not accept Ukraine as a member. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg and Ukrainian officials responded to this that a third country should not be involved. At the same OSCE meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said that the U.S. and its allies “have deep concerns about Russia’s plans for renewed aggression against Ukraine”, that Russia's aggression was similar to that of Russia in 2014, and added that preparations must be and will be made in case Russian policies do not change. The U.S. and Russian Secretary of State held a 30-minute sideline meeting, but only confirmed their differences.

For the United States, which has focused more on competition with China over the past few years, the Ukraine crisis, amid the Taliban’s return in August, is a challenge to European security. President Biden and U.S. officials have warned that they will take tough measures such as additional economic and financial sanctions against Russia in the event of Russian aggression. However, they have not officially come up with any concrete measures. U.S. Congress and experts say more shocking measures such as sanctions against Nord stream-2 (gas pipeline that runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany) or SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) are needed, but the U.S. government is concerned about possible adverse effects and thus cautious to coordinate with its allies. In a Biden-Putin summit call on December 7, the possibility of holding talks on the Ukraine crisis and European security between Russia and NATO's major countries was raised. Certainly, the possibility of holding talks on the Ukraine crisis and European security between Russia and NATO's major countries was raised during the Biden-Putin summit call on December 7. Also, the U.S. and NATO members are actively supporting Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The "NATO 2030" strategic concept, which will be adopted at the NATO summit in Madrid next year (2022), is expected to deal with the security challenges more than "NATO 2010” strategic concept had and discuss in detail the challenge posed by Russia after the 2014 Crimea annexation. In addition to traditional military security, non-traditional security issues such as cyber security, hacking, election intervention, disinformation, poison use, and energy security will also be emphasized. These non-traditional security elements have led to new Western sanctions against Russia since 2014. NATO has also begun to show interest in the security challenges caused by the increase in technological and economic cooperation between China and the EU (European countries) since 2018. This is also expected to attract renewed attention with NATO 2030.

After the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, analysts pointed out that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan and Ukraine was on the test. This is because the U.S. must face considerable risks in dealing with China and Russia at the same time while China and Russia challenge the U.S. and its allies. The current geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia and the current crisis in Ukraine are significant implications for South Korea's military and foreign policies as South Korea is a major ally of the U.S. and shares values of human rights and democracy. 

※ This is an unofficial  translation  by Jisoo Kim jk1577@georgetown.edu​ ​of the original paper which was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper. 
※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.