The Taliban’s return to power and China’s influence 

Chung Jae-hung 

Research Fellow,

The Sejong Institute 

(jameschung@sejong.org) 

The 20-year long war in Afghanistan, which began under the name of Operation Ending Freedom after the September 11 attacks in 2001, abruptly ended with the withdrawal of U.S. troops. The Taliban came back to power. China, which borders Afghanistan, was quick to make its move immediately after the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the Taliban's return. China, in the midst of its competition with the U.S., is taking initiatives to fill the void that the U.S. has left. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told British First Secretary of State and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab that "the international community should encourage and guide [the Taliban] in a positive direction instead of exerting more pressure”.

Celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, President Xi has recently proposed a model to become a socialist powerhouse with Chinese characteristics and plans to further expand the Belt and Road Initiative based on new international relations. Specifically, China has begun to implement a two-wing strategy in response to the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Strategy and the QUAD. In other words, China plans to promote a triad of South Korea-North Korea-China and a tetrad of South Korea-North Korea-China-Russia, by centralizing the Korean Peninsula of the east and a triad of China-Pakistan-Afghanistan and a tetrad of China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran through Xinjiang of the west–all under the Belt and Road Initiative. As the Taliban returns to power in Afghanistan during the long-term U.S.-China strategic competition, China will officially promote the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan cooperation and the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran cooperation.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had signed a 25-year wide-ranging economic and security cooperation agreement on March 27th, 2021. China has secured a stable supply of crude and natural gas from Iran for the next 25 years with a guaranteed discount and will invest $400 billion (about 480 trillion won) towards establishing Iran’s infrastructure, such as expressways, railways, power plants, ports, and 5G projects. As Iran faces severe economic difficulties due to not only the COVID-19 pandemic but also intensified U.S. sanctions, its cooperation with China has much significance. The Iran-China 25-year Cooperation Program will serve as a turning point in the development of China-Iran relations. China also plans to link China-Pakistan-Iran through its Belt and Road Initiative.

Moreover, China and Pakistan are building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the largest project of the Belt and Road Initiative. The CPEC is a large-scale state-run project that invests 62 billion dollars (about 72 trillion won) as a single investment to build infrastructure such as roads, ports, bridges, railways, and power plants from Xinjiang in China to Gwadar Port in Pakistan. Pakistan has become the closest, pro-China country. Some even say China has North Korea to its east and Pakistan to its west.

The Taliban, which has regained control of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of U.S. troops, is known as the Islamic State that had ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 after the Mujahidin movement in the 1980s but fled to Pakistan to avoid the U.S. in Afghanistan. The Taliban, however, has continued its activities by secretly traveling between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Such was possible as about 25 million Pashtun—core members of the Taliban—live in Pakistan. The Islamic State is expected to establish a new form of government in Afghanistan with Haqqani Taliban (also known as Haqqani Network) and Tehrik-i-Taliban (also known as Pakistan Taliban (TTP)). Among many reasons, the Taliban’s close ties with the Pakistani military and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and continued activities across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border explain the Taliban’s survival despite nearly 20 years of U.S. occupation of Afghanistan.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who was officially invited by Foreign Minister Wang in Tianjin on July 28th, is known as the second-in-command of the Islamic State and is actually called the leader of the Taliban (mullah). He is a key figure in charge of foreign policy who has close ties with Pakistan as he has long been working at a madrasa (an Islamic cleric school) in Pakistan. Wang Yi, the foreign minister, told him that China may expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Belt and Road Initiative project to Pakistan—beyond rebuilding Afghanistan’s economy if Pakistan does not threaten China’s security with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), an organization for separation and independence from Xinjiang. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar also hinted at a new partnership with China and expressed his willingness to cooperate in Afghanistan's economic reconstruction and the Belt and Road Initiative. In fact, the Taliban that regained control of Afghanistan needs to improve its people’s livelihood and rebuild the economy through close cooperative relations with neighboring countries such as China and Pakistan. On August 19th, Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen responded that China could contribute to the development of Afghanistan in the future as it “is a big country with a giant economy and capacity”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying had said at a press conference on August 16th that “China has maintained contact and communication with the Afghan Taliban and played a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Afghan issue” and that China is “ready to continue to develop good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation with Afghanistan and play a constructive role in Afghanistan's peace and reconstruction”. Furthermore, major Chinese media and experts rejected the possibility of sending Chinese troops to Afghanistan but stressed the need for economic cooperation to develop rare earth and mineral resources worth trillions of dollars in Afghanistan in linkage with the Belt and Road Initiative.

From now on, China will make the most of its dynamic relations with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran to expand its Belt and Road Initiative to link China to Pakistan to Iran to Afghanistan. Although the interests of the four countries are complicated, China may be able to create a new regional order if it makes the most of its Belt and Road Initiative and economic power in the absence of the U.S. In particular, China is likely to make the most of Afghanistan without the U.S. in order to actively respond to the border dispute with India, the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, and the QUAD. If China uses its Belt and Road Initiative and economic power to establish a new triad or tetrad, linking Pakistan-Afghanistan or Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran, the U.S. must change or strengthen its Indo-Pacific strategy and the QUAD.

After the sudden withdrawal of U.S. troops, Afghanistan became the stage for Islamic extremist terrorist groups and independent armed groups from Uzbekistan and Tajik. The possibility of civil war cannot be ruled out completely. In particular, Islamic extremist terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) joined to resume their activities. Ultimately, how soon the Taliban will end the chaos in Afghanistan and ensure its regime stability will be an important aspect for both China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction projects.​ 

※ This is an unofficial  translation  by Jisoo Kim jk1577@georgetown.edu​ ​of the original paper which was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper. 

※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.