59th Annual Munich Security Conference: First year of War in Ukraine

Chung Eunsook 

Emeritus Senior Fellow

The Sejong Institute 

(chunges@sejong.org)  

  The 59th annual Munich Security Conference was held from February 17 to 19. The Munich Security Conference was originally founded by German journalist 'Edgard von Kleist' in 1963 during the Cold War as a small dialogue between high-level officials of the Transatlantic(U.S. and European allies), but it now became a global security dialogue. Hundreds of attendees, including the heads of state, defense, and foreign ministers head to Munich every February. Since many years ago, Russian and Chinese officials have been invited regularly, but Russians were absent this year. 

  This year, participants held discussions over 3 days on global security challenges, international order, and European security. Above all, all individual agenda shows the multilateral changes in the landscape, its international meaning, prospects, and short, mid, long term visions for Western solidarity. For example, topics included "securing accountability for illegal activities," "Transatlantic Defense and Nuclear Order," "Information Disorder," "Green Geopolitics," "Gray Zone," "Global Trade and Pressure," "Restoring Democratic Elasticity," "Protecting the U.N. Charter and Rule-based Order," "The Birth of Geopolitical Europe," and "European Security Partners." The panels on the second day about the regional challenges consisted of Ukraine, the Sahel, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, while the panel with "Ukraine" gained the most attention. U.S. Secretary of State Blinkon, German Foreign Minister Baerbock, and Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba participated in the event to discuss the importance of the concept of "victim and victim countries" and the issue of ensuring sustainable peace.

  As known, Ukraine faces Russia with a 1,944km borderline and is the largest country in Central and Eastern Europe with its territory (three times the Korean peninsula) and population (42 million). It has been a year since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, in three directions under President Putin's "Special Military Operation" on February 24 last year (2022). Not only the damages to human resources and material damages but also fear and tension rose in neighboring countries such as Moldova. Finland and Sweden, which have traditionally maintained neutrality, have finally decided to join NATO. Currently, Russia occupies 7% of Ukraine's territory (1/3 of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk).

  In the six "talk with leaders" high-level officials from Ukraine(by video), Germany, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China participated. In the video, Ukraine President Zelensky stressed that President Putin will be the only beneficiary of external support were to be delayed and asked for a faster decision on sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine.

  The leaders of Germany, France, the U.S., and Britain spoke to each other about Ukraine War and shared roughly the following perceptions:

  (i) A high evaluation of Zelensky and Ukrainian's courage and will defend freedom;

  (ii) A reason and why Russian imperialistic, new-colonialism-based idea based strategies should and must fail(Causing chaos in international order)

  (iii) Awakening and united sanctions from the West to Russia and the willingness, and performance of support to Ukraine   (iv) The issue of liability, punishment, and compensation for human and material damage, including crimes against humanity by the Russian military must go through the International Criminal Court (ICC)

  (v) Short-term task for the West to prepare military preparation of ammunition, tanks, etc. Mid-term task to mobilize against conventional warfare and guarantee Ukraine's permanent security. Hence, cooperation and value sharing with non-North Atlantic countries such as the "Global South" to preserve the "rule-based" international order and tasks. As the Re: Vision - Munich Security Conference Report 2023 prepared by organizations suggests reform for liberal rule-based order, or Re: vision is to be an important task.

On the other hand, China's Wang Yi's remarks lacked concreteness and remained in the justification as "not to reenact the path of hostility, division, confrontation in the past, and should not fall into the trap of zero-sum games and conflicts." Respect for sovereignty and United Nations Charter, the human community, and China's constructive role were listed. Chinese proposals for terms were also suggested. The West's accumulated public distrust in recent years (2022 NATO Strategic Concept, "Systematic Challenge") seems to have been deepened in the Ukrainian War. It is unclear about the reliability of China's peace plan in the international community with the declaration of an "unlimited" relationship with Russia, three weeks before the opening of the invasion and the continued "discretion" in a series of condemnation resolutions. The west also does not overlook that China is pursuing economic benefits like low-price petroleum due to Western sanctions against Russia. Wang Yi's attendance was the first since 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Currently, it is unclear when and how the war will end, and if so, whether there will be a guarantee for Ukraine's sustainable peace or Russia, will no longer invade Ukraine. Above all, it is hard to determine President Putin's mind, and whether he will be able to admit a strategic failure and decide on a full withdrawal. Although Korea achieved economic growth and democratization with a liberal rule-based international order that respects human rights, freedom, and the rule of law, it is difficult to say that the war in Ukraine cannot be overlooked from a distance for us under North Korea's nuclear and missile crisis. Above all, (i) national security posture must not create a gap in strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance and enhancing self-defense capabilities, and (ii) the U.S. and European countries have more tasks to respond with interests in bigger tasks, Re: the vision of international order differentiated from revisionist powers.