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The Launch of Trump’s Second Term and the Canadian Federal Election: Characteristics and Implications |
| May 12, 2025 |
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Woon-an KamVisiting Research Fellow, Sejong Institute | wakam96@gmail.com
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| IntroductionIn the Canadian federal election held on April 28, 2025, the ruling Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, succeeded in securing another term. Until just before the inauguration of President Trump, the Liberal Party had appeared likely to lose the election due to persistently low approval ratings. However, by adopting a firm stance against President Trump’s offensive posture, the party managed to reverse the tide and achieve a comeback victory. The so-called "Trump factor" overwhelmingly influenced voter decision-making more than any other variables, working to the advantage of the incumbent Liberal Party and to the disadvantage of the opposition Conservative Party.
Following the election, Canada’s foreign policy is expected to move toward redefining its relationship with the United States, pursuing greater international diversification, enhancing economic autonomy, and reinforcing multilateral diplomacy and environmental policy. In this context, Korea–Canada relations are also anticipated to develop further based on the deepening of their comprehensive strategic partnership, the expansion of economic and technological cooperation, and joint responses to global and multilateral issues. -
The 2025 Canadian federal election was a snap election held approximately six months ahead of the scheduled deadline of October 20, in accordance with electoral regulations. This political shift was triggered by the abrupt resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on January 6, 2025, amid declining approval ratings caused by high inflation, a worsening housing crisis, and economic stagnation. The newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney assumed office on March 14 and, in a press conference held on March 23, officially announced that the election would be held on April 28. Several key factors contributed to Prime Minister Carney’s decision to call an early election.
First, there was a growing possibility of victory in a snap election. During the final phase of Trudeau’s tenure, public support for the Liberal Party had declined sharply due to soaring prices and housing costs, and most projections pointed to an imminent defeat by the Conservative Party. However, the political landscape changed drastically as U.S. President Donald Trump began implementing aggressive trade policies—such as imposing tariffs on Canada—and made statements perceived as infringing on Canadian sovereignty. As the threat posed by Trump became more tangible, public support for the Liberal Party surged. Rising anti-American sentiment and strong public calls to defend Canadian sovereignty coalesced around anti-Trump attitudes, which translated into growing support for the Liberals, who adopted a firm stance against Trump. Sensing an opportunity to solidify his political base, Carney moved to hold an early election.
Second, Prime Minister Carney, not being a sitting member of Parliament at the time, needed to consolidate his political leadership and legitimize his premiership through a direct electoral mandate from the public. While it is customary in Canada for the prime minister to be a member of the House of Commons (or, in rare cases, the Senate), there is no legal requirement for this. Nonetheless, in political reality, a prime minister who is not an elected member is generally perceived as a caretaker leader under extraordinary circumstances.
In addition, there was a strong likelihood that opposition parties would introduce and pass a motion of no confidence. The main opposition Conservative Party had consistently put forward such motions during former Prime Minister Trudeau’s tenure. Furthermore, the third-largest party, the New Democratic Party (NDP), which had ended its policy alliance with the Liberals near the end of Trudeau’s term, and even the Bloc Québécois—the second-largest opposition party, which had previously remained neutral on no-confidence motions—were now increasingly inclined to support a motion against Carney. Faced with these political risks, Prime Minister Carney had little choice but to take the gamble of calling an early election. -
Before the Trump issue came to the forefront, the most pressing agenda items in Canadian politics were the severe housing crisis, economic recession, and high inflation. The key concerns raised within Canadian society included housing issues (notably a severe shortage and soaring prices), healthcare problems (an outdated system and lack of access to services), rising prices and the burden of living costs, economic stagnation, immigration-related tensions, and public safety issues (including crime and drug-related concerns).
However, the situation changed dramatically when President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and repeatedly made remarks such as his intent to "make Canada the 51st state of the United States." These aggressive statements—particularly the tariff imposition and the “51st state” rhetoric—intensified Canadian nationalism. The Trump issue rapidly overshadowed all previously dominant domestic concerns and emerged as the most decisive factor in the election. In a country that Canadian media once described self-mockingly as having “nothing that truly unites us except hockey and maple syrup,” a powerful wave of patriotism and national solidarity surged.
President Trump’s remarks and trade pressure triggered strong anti-American and nationalist sentiment within Canada, leading to a growing public demand for a leader capable of standing up to the United States’ excessive demands. In response, the Liberal Party under Prime Minister Mark Carney shifted its campaign strategy to center on the theme of a “Strong Canada Standing Up to Trump’s Pressure.”
Moreover, Carney’s expertise in economic affairs and his extensive international experience were positively received by voters, bolstering public trust in the Liberal Party’s leadership. With the resignation of former Prime Minister Trudeau, Carney’s emergence as a seasoned economic expert offered the Liberal Party both “fresh leadership” and a “tough stance against the United States.”
In contrast, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre suffered from a perceived resemblance to Donald Trump, which became a liability during the campaign. As anti-American sentiment intensified among the Canadian public, Poilievre and the Conservatives, associated with the image of a “Canadian Trump,” faced a strong backlash and failed to win over centrist voters. Furthermore, Poilievre’s campaign slogan “Canada First” evoked comparisons with Trump’s “America First” rhetoric, further fueling public opposition. -
The Liberal Party secured 169 out of 343 seats, falling just three seats short of an absolute majority (172 seats). The Conservative Party won 144 seats, while the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party (NDP) gained 23 and 7 seats, respectively. Although the Liberals will now form a minority government, the result marks their fourth consecutive electoral victory since 2015. In Canada, political power has traditionally shifted every 8 to 10 years, making the Liberal Party’s continued hold on government an exceptional case of prolonged rule.
This election served as a pivotal moment in Canada–U.S. relations. President Trump’s threatening rhetoric intensified nationalist sentiment among the Canadian public. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Carney declared, “Our long-standing relationship with the United States, one that has grown increasingly integrated, is over.” The phrase “We’re not for sale” became a central theme of the election campaign and symbolizes a reorientation of Canada’s foreign policy.
In this context, the outcome of the election reflected the Canadian public’s strategic intent to reduce the country’s dependence on the United States and diversify its international relations. For his first overseas visit as prime minister, Carney chose Paris, not Washington, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron. This was a clear signal that Canada is seeking reliable allies elsewhere. During the Carney–Macron summit, the two leaders reached agreements on cooperation in cybersecurity, clean energy, and artificial intelligence, as well as expanding support for Ukraine.
The election also brought significant changes to Canada’s domestic political landscape. Notably, support was heavily concentrated on the two main parties: the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party secured 43.6% and 41.4% of the vote, respectively. This marked the first time since 1930 that both parties surpassed the 40% threshold in a federal election—a historically significant outcome. Amid this shift toward two-party dominance, the presence of the New Democratic Party, the Bloc Québécois, and the Green Party was considerably diminished. -
The Carney administration is seeking to expand engagement with European and Commonwealth countries as part of a long-term strategy to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States in areas such as the economy and security. In strong opposition to statements from the Trump administration suggesting the “annexation of Canada,” Prime Minister Carney declared the establishment of a “new sovereignty-based economic and security relationship.” Within this context, Canada plans to deepen cooperation with European countries through the G7 Summit (to be hosted by Canada in June 2025) and the NATO Summit, with particular emphasis on expanding defense industry collaboration with the United Kingdom and France under the ReArm Europe Plan.
In parallel, the government is promoting domestic measures to reduce U.S. dependence and strengthen economic self-reliance by revitalizing interprovincial trade and exchange, including the removal of internal trade barriers. Canada currently faces significant obstacles to the domestic flow of goods and services due to differing regulations, standards, licensing systems, and tax structures across its provinces. The federal and provincial governments aim to dismantle these barriers and build a unified domestic market. Under the vision of “integrating 13 fragmented economies into one,” the federal government plans to enhance coordination and cooperation with the provinces.
In the economic domain, the Carney administration has established a new agency, Build Canada Homes (BCH), to address the housing crisis—considered the most serious problem under the previous Trudeau government. The goal is to construct 500,000 housing units annually. The government will provide CAD 25 billion in debt financing and CAD 1 billion in equity investment to prefabricated housing manufacturers. In major cities such as Toronto, it also plans to reduce development fees to lower the construction cost of two-bedroom apartments by CAD 40,000 per unit. Additionally, the government is reintroducing the Multi-Unit Residential Building (MURB) policy from the 1970s to attract private capital to the rental housing market.
In the security and defense sector, Canada aims to raise its defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2030 in line with NATO guidelines. Over the next four years, CAD 30.9 billion will be allocated to enhance cybersecurity and Arctic surveillance capabilities. The government plans to introduce Over-the-Horizon Radar technology through cooperation with Australia. It will expand year-round military bases in the Arctic and build partnerships with Indigenous communities. These efforts are intended to deter Russian and Chinese advances, while securing leadership in resource development through the expansion of port and surveillance infrastructure. Canada will also actively participate in the ReArm Europe Plan and, through this initiative, expand defense industry cooperation with European partners—particularly the United Kingdom and France. This is expected to contribute to the diversification of Canada’s defense industry exports and deepen industrial-security ties with Europe.
In climate policy, Prime Minister Carney has pledged to abolish the consumer-facing carbon tax and shift toward an industry-centered emissions reduction strategy. Instead, the government will strengthen Clean Fuel Regulations and enhance cooperation with provincial governments to reduce methane emissions. At the same time, it will pursue a dual-track strategy under the vision of becoming a “clean and conventional energy powerhouse,” by streamlining approval processes for LNG development projects and expanding tax incentives for renewable energy infrastructure. This approach reflects a calibrated compromise in response to strong backlash from provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada’s major oil and gas producers, against federal environmental regulations, especially the carbon tax and restrictions on fossil fuel industries. It also takes into account the need to elevate Canada’s energy profile amid rising tensions with the United States under the Trump administration. -
Following the federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s foreign policy direction can be summarized along three main pillars: the redefinition of Canada–U.S. relations, the strengthening of economic autonomy, and the enhancement of multilateral diplomacy and environmental policy.
First, in relations with the United States, the Carney government is expected to place strong emphasis on defending national sovereignty and asserting policy independence. During the election campaign, the Liberal Party successfully mobilized voter support around anti-Trump sentiment, which has since translated into a diplomatic posture highlighting Canada’s autonomy and pursuit of an independent course in foreign affairs. Prime Minister Carney has positioned the protection of Canadian sovereignty and economic independence as core priorities in response to President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and foreign policy stance. Given that the Liberal Party’s electoral victory was built upon this firm stance toward the U.S., it is likely that such a posture will be maintained for the foreseeable future.
At the same time, while Carney has signaled a willingness to take retaliatory measures, such as counter-tariffs, against U.S. trade pressure, he has also expressed a pragmatic desire to pursue “mutually beneficial solutions.” The first summit between Carney and President Trump, held on May 6, demonstrated that despite the tensions, dialogue and negotiation remain possible. If there are no further provocations or threats from President Trump, the Carney government will likely seek to stabilize bilateral ties, especially in the context of the G7 Summit to be hosted by Canada in June, as a way to secure post-election political momentum and improve the economic outlook.
Second, the Carney government aims to advance an economy-centered diplomacy and strengthen global partnerships. As a former central bank governor, Prime Minister Carney places trade autonomy, economic independence, and national sovereignty at the core of his foreign policy agenda. He has characterized the ongoing trade war initiated by the Trump administration as “the defining crisis of our time,” and has stated his readiness to implement strong retaliatory measures if necessary. In parallel, amid deteriorating relations with the United States, the government is expected to intensify alliances with other major powers—particularly in Europe—and expand multilateral diplomacy. Reflecting this strategy, Carney has prioritized restoring transatlantic ties and enhancing global cooperation, as evidenced by his planned visits to the United Kingdom and France shortly after taking office.
In addition, the administration will focus on climate and environmental policy as well as securing future engines of economic growth. Having long advocated financial environmentalism in global forums such as the United Nations, Carney is expected to carry forward the Liberal Party’s traditional commitment to climate action and investment in renewable energy. These environmental initiatives are closely linked with Canada’s foreign policy in that they serve both as a vehicle for global leadership and a foundation for economic transition and long-term competitiveness.
Prime Minister Carney’s China policy can be summarized along three key lines: a principled approach rooted in values, cautious pragmatism, and economic diversification. First, while emphasizing the value differences between the two countries, the Carney government has taken a cautious stance on unconditional trade expansion with China. Carney made his position clear by stating that “China does not share Canada’s values when it comes to trade,” signaling a reserved approach. Nevertheless, in light of the government’s commitment to economic diversification and pragmatic engagement, cooperation with China is not entirely ruled out. Should trade tensions with the United States intensify, the Carney administration is likely to reconsider aspects of its economic relationship with China and remain open to selective sectoral cooperation.
As Carney shifts Canada’s diplomatic posture toward greater economic and security autonomy from the United States while pursuing a pragmatic yet values-conscious approach to China, the European Union (EU) emerges as a vital third option. Accordingly, Canada’s EU policy under Carney centers on strengthening alliances based on democracy and multilateralism, reinforcing fair trade, deepening economic and security partnerships, and expanding strategic cooperation to reduce dependence on the United States. In the face of the Trump administration’s unilateralism and protectionism, the Carney government has expressed its determination to work with the EU to uphold shared universal values such as free trade, multilateral cooperation, and democratic governance. Strengthening cooperation with Europe is regarded as a strategic choice for diversifying Canada’s export markets, enhancing economic resilience, and reinforcing global supply chain stability. -
Korea and Canada have maintained close cooperative relations in recent years, and the bilateral relationship is expected to deepen further. Since Prime Minister Carney’s inauguration, Canada’s policy toward Korea has focused on strengthening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), expanding economic and technological collaboration, and enhancing joint responses to multilateral and global challenges. The two countries share strong complementarities across diverse areas—including trade and investment, critical mineral supply chains, advanced technology exchange, and security cooperation. Their mutually reinforcing cooperation in the fields of economy, security, and technology is projected to intensify, with the formation of an alternative strategic partnership emerging as a key objective in response to the expansion of U.S. protectionism.
In this context, Canada may request consultations with Korea to develop a more flexible response mechanism to shifts in U.S. foreign policy. Korea, in turn, should respond proactively. Given that recent shifts in U.S. policy have introduced growing uncertainty and risk for allied and partner countries, it is critical to build a strategic posture capable of minimizing these impacts and responding swiftly to a range of scenarios. Beyond strengthening the ROK–U.S. alliance, Korea should deepen cooperation and expand networks with like-minded countries to diversify risks associated with U.S. policy fluctuations and enhance joint response capacity. Canada, along with other key partners such as Japan, Australia, and the European Union, should be actively engaged in building a coalition of middle-power states.
Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy will continue to be actively pursued. Within this strategy, Korea is explicitly identified as a “strong democratic partner,” with particular emphasis placed on economic linkages, including supply chain stabilization and critical mineral cooperation. The potential for bilateral cooperation is grounded not in geographic proximity, but in strategic necessity. Canada’s abundant natural resources, Korea’s manufacturing capacity and technological standardization capabilities, and their shared commitment to climate change mitigation form a triangular foundation upon which a trust-based partnership has developed. This multilayered structure of cooperation goes beyond mere economic interests and serves as a strong example of the kind of strategic partnership that is essential in an era of global value chain realignment.
Meanwhile, in the area of defense industry cooperation, which has been drawing increasing interest in bilateral relations, some concerning developments have emerged. Canada is currently moving forward with the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP), a procurement initiative for 8 to 12 submarines, estimated at up to 60 trillion Korean won. Companies from five to six countries, including Germany, Norway, France, and Spain, are participating in the bidding process, with Korea represented by Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries. A source of concern is the possibility that Canada’s increasing alignment with the European Union could influence the outcome of the submarine acquisition, potentially to Korea’s disadvantage. This highlights the need for more proactive support at the government level to ensure a competitive position in the procurement process.
Regarding bilateral energy cooperation, Korea is set to begin annual imports of 700,000 tons of LNG from the LNG Canada project this year. Concerns have been raised, however, about potential overlap or conflict with the U.S.-led Alaska LNG project, in which Washington has expressed interest in involving Korea. Considering that the annual import volume from Canada represents only about 1.6% of Korea’s total annual LNG demand of 44 million tons, there appears to be no significant issue in pursuing both projects simultaneously. Accordingly, Korea’s participation in the Alaska LNG project should be evaluated independently based on its own commercial viability, separate from the LNG Canada arrangement.
| Background of the Snap Election
| Key Issues and Developments
| Election Results and Key Characteristics
| Future Policy Priorities and Directions
| Foreign Policy Implications
| Outlook and Implications for Korea–Canada Relations
※ The contents published on 'Sejong Focus' are personal opinions of the author and do not represent the official views of Sejong Institue
