Japan's political outlook: the Suga Cabinet after the Olympics 

Lee Myon Woo 

(mwlee@sejong.org) 

Vice President,

the Sejong Institute​

English Abstract​

In the Yokohoma mayoral election of August 22nd, the Constitutional Democratic Party- and the Japanese Communist Party- backed Yamanaka Takeharu won over Hachiro Komogi, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party candidate. The unexpected victory of Yamanaka may lead to: first, a possibility of the ruling party to all run for election at once; second, strong opposition against the current mayor Hayashi's plan of building a comprehensive resort; third, more complaints about the government’s unsatisfactory measures against the worsening COVID-19 pandemic.

The defeat of the ruling party in the Yokohama mayoral election suggests several scenarios about Prime Minister Suga's re-election. Foremost, the Yokohoma mayoral election symbolizes a defeat in Suga's regional foundation. The Liberal Democratic Party must be thinking over whether Prime Minister Suga can win or at least defend his position in the Liberal Democratic Party at the upcoming election.

There are three possible scenarios regarding the direction of Japanese politics. In the first scenario, Prime Minister Suga is re-elected in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and is not defeated in the Japanese general election. The status quo is maintained. In the second scenario, Prime Minister Suga is re-elected in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election but loses the election and resigns his position as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. In the third scenario, Kono or Kishida is elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party and becomes a candidate for the Japanese general election. Meanwhile, it is important to note that Suga was continually defeated this year.

Whether the Suga Cabinet continues or there are new individuals, the upcoming general election in Japan will center on domestic issues such as overcoming the COVID-19 crisis and devising economic stimuli. International and diplomatic issues such as U.S.-China relations are likely to be put aside for now. Therefore, Korea-Japan relations will not be heavily influenced by future changes within Japanese politics. 

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