North Korea-Russia Summit and Changes in Security Environment on the Korean Peninsula

Hyun-ik Hong

Senior Research Fellow

hyunik@sejong.org

Sejong Institute

     Despite the U.S. warning and disclosure of information, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un left Pyongyang on September 10 and held a summit with Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast, Russia, on September 13 and traveled around the Russian Far East for a total of five nights and six days. The reciprocal and complementary benefits for the two sides were significantly greater than being bound by U.S. interference and warnings, so they pushed ahead with the summit event, keeping the date of the visit and the venue of the talks secret for security. Both North Korea and Russia place more emphasis on promoting cooperation with China than on mutual cooperation, and if the two sides strengthen cooperation with each other through the summit, it seems that they will get positive results in promoting China's cooperation with the two countries. It is believed to be Russia's intention to supply North Korea with a considerable amount of technology related to satellite technology. Now that a deal has been made with Russia, it is necessary to be prepared against the military cooperation led with providing, repairing, and improving of Mig-29, dismantled in Russia which could be given to North Korea and used after maintenance. Kim Jong-un said, "The war in Ukraine is a war of justice," strongly suggesting that Russia will provide the weapons from North Korea with his comments, "We will be with Russia on the anti-imperialist front."

     It has become difficult for South Korea to expect cooperation from Russia, which is needed for cooperation in the process of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, resolving sudden changes in North Korea, and peaceful unification. It is a precarious change in the situation that the confrontation between South Korea, the U.S., Japan and North Korea, China, and Russia may become fixed. Fortunately, it is believed that China will not actively participate in the North Korea-Russia joint military exercise. It seems not difficult for North Korea to join the annual China-Russia joint training, which might lead to the preparation of active war in the Korean Peninsula, rather than its original plan for a Japanese blockade. What the South Korean government should note is that if security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan continues to be blatantly strengthened and anti-China purposes, the possibility of joint military exercises between North Korea, China, and Russia will increase. In order for China to maintain a third-party position on strengthening security cooperation between North Korea and Russia, the South Korean government needs to promote communication with China and emphasize the need for mutual respect with China, while taking a more careful approach to China's vital interests, including the Taiwan issue, and mentioning them wisely. Now, while maintaining security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, on the other hand, dialogue with North Korea, China, and Russia should resume, normalize relations, and promote reciprocal cooperation to manage national security risks more stably and minimize the cost of division.