Blinkon's visit to China and expectations on future changes in U.S.-China relation

Chung Jae-hung

jameschung@sejong.org

The Sejong Institute

   With the last year's 20th Party Congress in October and two sessions this March, the new era of Xi Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is to replace Deng Xiaoping's Chinese reformation and economic development. Following the foundation of China by Mao Zedong, the Deng Xiaoping era established China as the world's second-largest economy for the first time in about 40 years through rapid economic growth of more than 10% a year since the reformation and opening market in 1978. With such remarkable economic achievements, the newly inaugurated Xi Jinping's third term leadership aims to fulfill the task by establishing a new multipolar international order based on the world's second-largest economy and making China's dream and become Strong Socialist China.

   The most important foreign policy change of Xi Jingping's third term leadership, which announced the strategic economic-security cooperation between China and Russia in the 21st century to resolve the China-Russia conflicts caused by the border disputes from the past. In particular, President Xi Jinping and President Putin agreed through the summit to strengthen strategic communication and further expand and develop military-security cooperation to solve the Ukraine and Taiwan Strait problem in Eurasia. Two leaders issued a "joint statement on the deepening of full strategic partnership in the new era" and expressed mutual cooperation and support on issues of sovereignty, territorial preservation, security, and economic development. In addition, in order to respond to U.S.-led decoupling and high-tech sanctions on China, hence also to strengthen political, economic, and security cooperation with the Global South countries such as BRICS, SCO, Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and South America

   Moreover, Russia, which has been heavily sanctioned by the West since the War in Ukraine, announced its mid-long-term foreign policy to create a new multipolar international order and accelerate Eurasian political-economic integration through strategic economy-security cooperation with China. Cooperation between Russia, the world's largest number of nuclear weapons, vast territories, and energy resources, and China, the world's second-largest economy and the world's largest industrial-manufacturing supply chain with a 1.4 billion consumer market will inevitably lead to an emergence of a new multipolar international order. Li Shangfu, a close aide to President Xi Jinping and the U.S.'s major target of sanctions already visited Russia as his first destination and stressed the need for unlimited cooperation partnerships and joint military training between China and Russia in talks with Putin. Already, China and Russia agreed on close strategic communication and cooperation with each other on the issues of Ukraine in the west of the Eurasian region and the Taiwan Strait in the east. In addition, changes in regional order are expected to be inevitable as China's Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation with Russia's Eurasian (CIS Alliance) countries agreed to expand the synergy effect of political-economic-security cooperation.

   Due to changes in Sino-Russia's strategic relation for the multi-polar international order and shift in foreign policy, the U.S. Secretary of State, Blinkon visited China for the first time in about five years to hold marathon talks with Qin Gang Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, Director of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee Foreign Affairs Commission and Xi Jinping, the President of China. Prior to Blingkon's visit to China, President Biden said that U.S.-China relations are still on the right path, as they face various complex and difficult challenges, shifting from confrontation to competition and cooperation. Though President Biden referred to President Xi Jinping as a dictator on June 20, regarding the Chinese Spy Balloon Incident in the same year, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Chinese companies and Chinese people over Fentanyl on June 23, the relations between the U.S. and China are likely to improve as entrepreneurs such as Bill Gates, the founder of the Microsoft and Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, and Jamie Dimon, the Chairman of JP Morgan's visit to China to emphasize the importance of economic cooperation with China. In fact, various rare materials crucial for the production of semiconductors and batteries are under the influence of China, so if the economic relation is to be cut down, the damages to the U.S. economy will also be significant, resulting changes in the de-coupling strategy to de-risking policies toward China. If this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco restarts the summit between President Xi and President Biden, the relationship between the U.S. and China is expected to shift from confrontation and conflict to competition and cooperation.

   Of course, Blinkon's visit to China was to restore the hotline to prevent accidental clashes over the Taiwan Strait since Spy Balloon Incident in February, but it seems to have achieved limited results. In particular, the efforts made by Blinkon reflects the Biden Administration's change in policy toward China to rebuild a relationship with China amid changes in the international order. With a closer look at Biden Administration's policy adjustment, 1. Sino-Russia strategic economic-security cooperation, 2. BRICS and Global South countries' efforts for new payment currency and de-dollarization trend, 3. Internal crisis and default issues in the U.S. 4. The stalemate in the Ukraine crisis, 5. Biden's preparation for re-election has caused a shift in policies toward China. Moreover, before Blinkon's visit to China, a joint statement was made at the G7 summit in Hiroshima in May about not proceeding with the decoupling with China, giving a hint for the possibility of changes in policy toward China. In the end, the improvement of relations between the U.S. and China now depends on how agreed issues will be implemented after Blinkon's visit to China. In the end, if there is a disagreement over agreed issues between the U.S. and China, the U.S.-China relationship may intensify into more serious conflicts and confrontations.

   As is well known, the U.S. Secretary of State Blinkon and Wang Yi, fought over Taiwan at a meeting of Central Politburo, hence Qin Gang directly mentioned, Taiwan is a core interest to China and is a most crucial risk and problem for the U.S.-China relation and requested U.S.'s actual acts to reject their intervention to such issues. In particular, Wang Yi directly requested the Secretary of State to suspend the Theory of Chinese Threats, withdraw high-tech sanctions on China, ban domestic interference, including the Taiwan issue, and held a hard line stands toward both confrontation and cooperation positions toward the relations with the U.S.

   In the end, changes in U.S.-China relations are expected to shift after Blinkon, U.S. Secretary of State visited China for the first time in 5 years. China, which declared a new era of Xi Jinping after their two sessions in March this year, has recognized the crisis in Ukraine as a starting point for a multipolar international order with the collapse of the U.S.-centered unipolar order hegemony since the collapse of the Cold War, thus expanding the political-economic-security influence along with Russia in the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Moreover, though the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy, NATO solidarity, Korea-U.S.-Japan integrated security cooperation, QUAD, AUKUS, Chip4, and IPEF is ongoing, the economic cooperation with China is still ongoing except those Anglo-Saxon countries and Korea, Japan, Taiwan. Therefore, Korea also needs to closely observe the emergence of a multipolar international order and the possibility of changes in U.S.-China relations and create new strategic options and alternatives for their national interest-oriented diplomacy for peace and prosperity.