2024 Prospects of Japanese Politics

Myonwoo Lee

Vice President of Sejong Institute

mwlee@sejong.org

The most important thing in forecasting Japanese politics in 2024 is when the National Assembly (the House of Representatives) will be dissolved by Prime Minister Kishida. Of course, since the term of the House of Representatives is four years, there are still about two years until the second half of 2025, calculated from October 31, 2021. Nevertheless, the possibility of dissolution of the National Assembly is expected to continue from 2023 to next year because the Japanese Prime Minister, who implements the cabinet responsibility system, has the right to dissolve the National Assembly, under the "7th right to dissolve the cabinet," and it can be implemented at a time when it is considered most advantageous to him or when he believes that he can win the election. In particular, one of the reasons why the possibility of dissolution of the House of Representatives has been mentioned since mid-2023 this year is that the next Liberal Democratic Party election is scheduled for September 2024.​