Lai Ching-Te, Taiwan's Presidential Election and Implications

Jae-hung Chung

Researcher at Sejong Institute

jameschung@sejong.org

During a global election year, Taiwan's January 2024 presidential election showed 5.59 million votes (40.05% of the vote) to the pro-US, pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-Te, and Hsiao Bi-Khim, electing them as 16th President and Vice President of Taiwan. Taiwan's president serves a four-year term, similar to the United States, and is eligible for re-election. Since 1996, when direct presidential elections began in Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang(KMT) have been in power in roughly eight-year cycles, but for the first time in history, the DPP has won three consecutive elections. In this year's presidential election, the KMT's pro-China candidates, President Hou Yu-ih and Vice President Zhao Shao-Kang, received 4.67 million votes (33.49% of the vote), and the DPP's second-party candidates, President Ko Wen-Je and Vice President Wu Hsin-ying, received 3.69 million votes (26.49% of the vote).

The DPP's Tsai Ing-wen won 58% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, down about 18% from the previous presidential election, which was won by Tsai's opponent, Ma Ying-jeou, who ran with significant support from the younger generation but did not win the support of a majority of Taiwanese. In the past, President Tsai Ing-wen's "anti-China and protect Taiwan" strategy, in which she refused to give in to China's political, economic, and security pressures, united Taiwanese who were strongly opposed to China's "one country, two systems" reunification plan and won 58% of the vote. Of course, Tsai failed to secure a majority of the vote, as fatigue from the past four years of increasing confrontation and conflict with China has accumulated significantly, so securing domestic political momentum is the biggest challenge. In particular, in the legislative (National Assembly) elections held in conjunction with the Taiwanese presidential election (113 seats in total), the KMT won 52 seats, the DPP 51 seats, the KMT 8 seats, and the People's Democracy Party(PDP) 8 seats, and the DPP failed to secure a majority, forming a minority government, which is expected to significantly limit the DPP's legislative activities. Since it is difficult for any party to exercise parliamentary initiative if it does not win a parliamentary majority (57 seats), cooperation with other political forces is essential, and the PDP candidate, who has received active support from young voters in the 2030s by focusing mainly on civic issues, is expected to act as a casting boat by creating a certain crack in the two-party system.

Despite a difficult family background, Lai Ching-Te, who was elected as Taiwan's 16th president, had a relatively stable career as a physician after graduating from the National Taiwan University Medical School and National Cheng Kung University of Medicine before entering politics in 1994 and was elected to a four-year term as a member of the National Congress from 1996 to 2004, where he quickly rose to prominence within the Democratic Progressive Party. He is considered an icon of independence in Taiwan, especially since he is from the mainland and is a core member of the New Tide faction, whose core values include actual democratization and independence, and has always maintained that Taiwan's sovereignty does not belong to China and is in favor of a de facto as an independent nation. During the election campaign, Lai Ching-Te is expected to push the promises, which is to seek independence through a gradual approach rather than an abrupt objective from Tsai Ing-wen's idea along with proposing a four-pillar strategy of 1. building Taiwan's war deterrent capability, 2. economic security as national security, 3. establishing partnerships with all liberal democratic countries around the world, and 4. maintaining stable and principled cross-Strait relations. The election showed that the anti-China line, which has been in full swing since Tsai Ing-wen's presidency, and the search for a gradual path to independence through strong cooperation and solidarity with Western countries (such as the United States, Japan, and the EU) along with de-Chinaization have gained support and consensus from the Taiwanese people.