Re-elected Democratic Progressive Party and China's invasion of Taiwan

Geung-Chan Bae

Visiting Researcher at Sejong Institute

gcbae89@mofa.or.kr

There were no changes in Taiwan's presidential election as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's candidate, Lai Ching-Te, won the presidential election on January 13, 2024. Although some media predicted a close race in pre-election polls, Lai Ching-Te never trailed the opposition KMT candidate, albeit within the margin of error, and in the final vote, he won by more than the expected votes. This ensured that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party would remain in power for 12 years, surpassing the eight years of President Tsai Ing-wen.

Lai Ching-Te, the new president who is scheduled to take office in May 2024, will build on the policies of the previous Tsai Ing-wen administration and continue to reject Beijing's "One China" and "One Country, Two Systems" principles while continuing and strengthen political, military, and technological cooperation with the United States, laying the foundation for Taiwan's independence in the medium to long term. Throughout the presidential campaign, Beijing has been engaged in political, economic, military, and psychological intervention in Taiwan to defeat Lai Ching-Te and favor a KMT candidate compatible with Beijing, and has repeatedly stated that war is inevitable if the more radical independence-minded Lai Ching-Te becomes president. Will Beijing invade Taiwan in the future to fulfill its reunification agenda?

The basic position of past Chinese governments on the Taiwan issue has been, first, that cross-strait reunification must occur at some point second, that peaceful reunification as absorption unification will be prioritized, and third, that force will be used if Taiwan declares independence or attempts to develop nuclear weapons. However, Xi's recent announcement about the possibility of war with Taiwan is a result of his need to keep pro-independence hardliners in check and to achieve some form of tangible progress on the cross-strait reunification issue during his third term. In other words, he may be willing to invade Taiwan to produce political results for a fourth term after 2027.

Therefore, with Lai Ching-Te as president, peaceful reunification is out of the question, and the only option left is the use of force. From this perspective, the issue has become even more sensitive and urgent, especially after the U.S. CIA director revealed in October 2022 that President Xi Jinping had instructed the military to complete preparations for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.​