Changes in US Politics and Prospects after the 2022 Midterm Elections

Jungkun Seo

(seojk@khu.ac.kr)

Professor,

Kyung Hee University

English Abstract

2022 US Midterm Elections: From a Divided Government to the Presidential Election

The 2022 US midterm elections ended with a Democratic Senate majority and a Republican House majority. This marks the end of the unified government in the first half of the Biden administration. A divided government will continue from January 3, 2023 for the next two years.

The biggest topic of US politics became the 2024 presidential election after the midterm elections. Trump officialized on November 15 that he will run for the next president election.

The results of the midterms may seem to be a draw as the two parties split the Senate and the House of Representatives. However, it would not be an exaggeration to say that it was a victory for Biden and the Democratic Party for many reasons.

Most factors including the worst inflation in more than four decades, soaring gas prices, housing costs, crime rates in large cities, chaos at the border, and redistricting predicted that Democrats would struggle compared to Republicans.

The results turned out to be quite the opposite. The Democrats held the Senate while the Republicans won the majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrats gained control of Nevada where defeat seemed certain and Pennsylvania where the Republican Senator retired.

The Peculiarity of the 2022 US Midterm Elections: A Strange Happening or a New Normal?

Analyzing the choice of the voters with election results may be an excuse for researchers with failed predictions. The overwhelming prospect that concerns of the US public on inflation would eventually lead to the crushing defeat of the Democratic Party did sweep the final days of the campaign.

(1) The voting trend of the US voters may have changed. According to the classical understanding of US voters, they have a relatively low understanding of politics and are sensitive to major changes. They are known to approach elections based on major trends such as the economy or wars rather than individual issues. Such tendencies of US voters may have transformed into a group that makes a comprehensive assessment of several issues and votes accordingly.

(2) The slogan of “The economy is the problem” may no longer guarantee election victory in the polarizing US.

(3)The most important change in US politics may be finding out which party is favored by the early voting system. The 2020 US presidential election during the pandemic changed this significantly. Election day is not a public holiday in the US. Therefore, low-income or minority groups who had not been able to vote in the past took advantage of the early voting system. It will be of great interest to see if the early voting system which expanded after the pandemic will advantage the Democratic Party.

US Politics after the Midterm Elections: 117th Lame-Duck Congress and the 118th Committee of Inquiry

A month-long Congress after the midterms and before the opening of the new Congress on January 3 is called the lame-duck Congress.

An interesting characteristic of the lame-duck Congress is that the Democratic Party which lost majority in the House of Representatives still maintains the majority.

Attention should be paid to the Electoral Count Reform Act which is unlikely to be approved when the Republican Party takes the House majority early next year.

It is highly likely that Republicans will make hard-line offensives in the House. The Republican Party is expected to set up a committee of inquiry on various issues such as allegations of corruption against Hunter Biden and the possibility of President Biden’s involvement, withdrawal from Afghanistan, confusion over immigrants at the border and economic blockade during the pandemic.

US politics is expected to be in chaos once again due to congressional investigations and electoral competitions.