2023 North-South Relation Outlook

Choi, Eun-ju

(ej0717@sejong.org)

Research Fellow,

the Sejong Institute

     In 2022, strained inter-Korean relations continues since 2019. North Korea continued to pursue military actions externally while focusing on Covid-19 prevention, 5-year economic development plan, and strengthening internal solidarity.

     At the same time, while announcing that it will expand its foreign business in line with the changing international situation, North Korea still maintains the principle of withdrawal from the hostile policy. Meanwhile, the South Korean government has presented various support and cooperation projects on the premise of resuming denuclearization negotiations, but only faces North Korea's refusal to talk.

     In addition, in the first half of 2023, North Korea is expected to complete the development of its first military reconnaissance satellite. If the current international situation persists and both Koreas adhere to the principle of conditional relationship improvement, the possibility of improvement in inter-Korean relations is low, whereas the possibility of escalation toward military responses cannot be ruled out. In this respect, the Korean government needs to ease military tension and promote efforts to establish a long-term response strategy to stabilize the long-term counterstrategy.