Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit: Implications for Sino-Russian Strategic Security-Economic Cooperation
Chung Jae-hung
Research Fellow,
The Sejong Institute
(jameschung@sejong.org)
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met for the first time in seven months since the Ukraine crisis and held bilateral talks ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on September 15. In particular, ahead of the 20th party convention in October, in which a new leadership system centered on Xi Jinping will be established, President Xi Jinping, who suspended his overseas trip due to the spread of COVID-19 since his visit to Myanmar in January 2020, attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit as his first overseas trip in about two years and eight months. His agreement to strengthen strategic security-economic cooperation between China and Russia through talks with President Vladimir Putin has raised very important implications.
During the bilateral talks on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Samarkand, President Xi Jinping said he was very happy to meet "my old friend" again, Putin, and appreciated Russia's adherence to the one-China principle, stressing that Taiwan is part of China, the Chinese side firmly opposes the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and external interference, and no country is entitled to act as a judge on the Taiwan question. Then, President Putin said that Russia has abided by the One China Principle and "condemn provocations staged by the United States and its satellites in the Strait of Taiwan". Furthermore, he said that Russia and China will "support building a just, democratic and multipolar world order based on international rules and the central role of the United Nations, not on certain rules that someone has invented and is attempting to impose on others without even explaining what it is all about". President Xi Jinping, then, replied: "In the face of ongoing formidable global changes that have never been seen in history, we are ready to work with our Russian colleagues to set an example of what a responsible global power is and assume leadership in order to bring the rapidly changing world onto a path of sustainable and positive development".
Prior to China-Russia summit, on September 12th, Yang Jiechi, a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party in charge of China's foreign policy, told Russian Ambassador to China Denisov: "China stands ready to work with Russia to fully implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, continue to deepen political mutual trust and strategic coordination, and ensure that bilateral relations move forward in the direction set by the two heads of state, so as to foster a more secure and stable external environment for China's and Russia's development and revitalization, and make greater contributions to safeguarding the common interests of the two countries and the security and stability of the world". He emphasized that "the two sides have jointly safeguarded the international system with the United Nations at its core and the international order underpinned by international law, and upheld international fairness and justice, setting a fine example for developing a new type of relations between major countries featuring mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation for the international community". Igor Morgulov, who will be appointed the new Ambassador to China, in particular, is Putin's closest aide and representative Chinese expert and has always been in charge of China, the Korean Peninsula, and Eurasia. After the appointment, China-Russia strategic security-economic cooperation for multipolar international order and Eurasian regional integration is expected to be strengthened, with China and Russia at the core, including China-Russia-Mongolia, China-Russia-Central Asia, China-Russia-Iran, China-Russia-Pakistan, China-Russia-North Korea. Xi Jinping's leadership is already promoting a multipolar international order and respond to the U.S.-China strategic competition by nurturing Xinjiang Urumqi as a core hub for full-fledged security and economic cooperation with Eurasian countries such as Russia, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan in terms of the Belt and Road Initiative revitalization and further expanding Hong Kong-Shenzen trade-financial services (Hong Kong) and advanced IT manufacturing (Shenzen) to promote political-economic cooperation with ASEAN countries.
China, after attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the China-Russia summit, gained firm support for one-China principle from all members of the SCO including Russia-on the most important Taiwan issue. Furthermore, China changed the international payment system for oil, natural gas, trade, etc. using yuan and local currency (Ruble currency) instead of dollars, discussed the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Development Bank and infrastructure development funds to expand new electronic money, and agreed to accelerate economic integration in the Eurasian region. Furthermore, China agreed to further strengthen information and security cooperation among SCO member countries through joint training of anti-terrorism experts and vitalization of information and security exchanges. Also, Iran, which has been under long-standing U.S. economic sanctions along with North Korea, has become an official member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) led by China and Russia. With Iran, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has effectively established a huge Eurasian regional security-economic consultative body with 3.1 billion people, or about 44 percent of the world's population. Mid- to long-term plan to further expand the size of its member countries to promote the Eurasian Community through the multipolarization of the world order was also announced; if the COVID-19 pandemic eases some extent, the possibility of North Korea-in the eastern edge of Eurasia-joining the SCO cannot be ruled out completely.
With the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit as an opportunity after the Ukraine crisis, following the withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan last year and thus a major change in the international order, China and Russia will move away from the unipolar system centered on the U.S. and Western Europe and establish a multipolar international order and Eurasia regional community; the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), BRICS, Central Asia, ASEAN and the Middle East are expected to strengthen cooperation in the security and economic sectors. In particular, Xi Jinping's leadership showed a strong will to promote the Belt and Road Initiative based on the human destiny community and new international relations by presenting a model for developing a socialist country with Chinese characteristics by 2049. It is expected to expand and develop mainly in Eurasia and ASEAN (ASEAN), including Russia, after the 20th party convention.
Xi Jinping's leadership is particularly seeking a multi-wing strategy centered on the Eurasian region under the strategic security-economic stance of China and Russia in order to actively respond to the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy and NATO-linked strategy. In other words, South Korea-North Korea-China three-way cooperation, South Korea-North Korea-China-Russia four-way cooperation, and South Korea-North Korea-China-Russia-Mongolia five-way cooperation, centering on the three northeastern provinces of China will be promoted. With the western region of Xinjiang as the center, China-Pakistan-Afghan three-way cooperation, China-Uzbek-Kazakhstan (Central Asian country)- Russia four-way cooperation, and China-Pakistan-Afghan-Iran four-way cooperation will be promoted. In the southern region, the plan is to promote China-Vietnam-Myanmar-Cambodia four-way cooperation and Sino-ASEAN cooperation.
The integration of Eurasia region and the multi-polar international order based on strategic security-economic cooperation between China and Russia, triggered by the withdrawal of the U.S. from Afghanistan and the Ukraine crisis, will be promoted as medium- to long-term goals. There is an expectation of a lot of challenges and checks by the U.S. and other Western countries. However, Xi Jinping's leadership believes that a new international order is inevitable due to the Ukraine crisis that occurred after the geopolitical vacuum caused by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. In fact, the U.S. has begun a full-fledged geopolitical competition over core interests such as the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, which are located within the first lead.
Given that President Xi Jinping's three-term one-man system will be made certain at the 20th party convention in October, the strengthening of Sino-Russian strategic security-economic cooperation through the first overseas trip of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and the China-Russia summit has given considerable policy implications. Therefore, South Korea needs to understand the changing international order more calmly and objectively and consider the possibility of new changes within the order of Eurasia and around the Korean Peninsula. In order to come up with policy countermeasures, therefore, it will be necessary to hold high-level strategic dialogues between Homeland Security, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry National Defense of South Korea and China, and close dialogues and communication between think tanks of South Korea and China.