Foreign Affairs Outlook for 2021

The Biden Administration and Russian Foreign Policy in 2021

Dr. SHIN Beom Shik

Professor, Seoul National University

sbsrus@snu.ac.kr

English Abstract

The launch of the Biden administration would mean the arrival of a more challenging international environment for Russia than the Trump administration. Since the presidential election, president-elect Joe Biden has continuously signaled a firm stance and policy toward Russia and is particularly expected to seek active cyber-related responses. However, a more important challenge than bilateral relations is that the value diplomacy of democracy and human rights of the U.S. will re-enact the effect of the color revolution in Russia’s nearby countries within the region. In anticipation of this unfriendly U.S. policy, Russia will enhance its strategy to balance the influence of the U.S. by strengthening ties with Eurasian allies and continuing strategic cooperation with China, and will keep the U.S. in check at the United Nations and other international organizations to prevent unilateralism and value diplomacy by stressing compliance with sovereignty principles. Meanwhile, Russia is expected to implement regional policies to manage regional stability and expand its influence opportunistically in Northeast Asia and the Middle East, where the U.S. is expected to reinforce its new alliance and interventionist policies.