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[Outlook on Global Affairs 2025 - Special Issue No. 9] The Middle East in 2025: On the Brink of Turmoil |
| December 24, 2024
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Ilkwang SungProfessor, Sogang Europ-Mena Institute (SEMI) | ilkwangs@naver.com
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Since Hamas's "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation against Israel on October 7 of last year, the Middle East has been undergoing a profound upheaval. If the 20th century was defined by the Arab-Israeli conflict, the period from 1979 onwards has marked an era of Iranian-Israeli confrontation. While the 20th century witnessed clashes between Israel and Arab states, the 21st century is characterized by a conflict involving Israel, Iran, and Iran’s allied organizations. Similarly, if the wars of the 20th century sought to pressure Israel into accepting a Palestinian state, the wars of the 21st century aim to eradicate Israel. The culmination of this dynamic was Hamas’s "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation.
The conflict, which began as an Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, quickly expanded across the region. The first to join the fight in support of Hamas was Lebanon's Hezbollah. Formed by Iran in 1982 to unite Lebanon's Shia factions, Hezbollah’s primary goal is to establish a theocratic state in Lebanon modeled after Iran. Prior to this, Hezbollah has focused on reducing U.S. and Israeli influence in the region. The group continues its armed struggle against Israel under the banner of Palestinian liberation. Following Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi forces declared solidarity with Hamas and launched attacks on Israel. The Houthis, adherents of Zaydi Shia Islam distinct from Iran's Twelver Shia, are deploying advanced drones and missile systems developed with Iranian support to strike Israel. The Houthis have also targeted Israeli and Western ships passing through the Red Sea, causing severe disruptions to logistics and supply chains.
During the Gaza war, Israel conducted an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Syria, assassinating IRGC Quds Force General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. In retaliation, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israeli soil on April 14, deploying over 350 ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan intercepted 60% of these projectiles, aiding Israel. The U.S. also rapidly deployed aircraft carriers to the Gulf region to support Israel and contain the conflict.
This defense system, known as the Middle East Air Defense (MEAD), was initiated by the U.S. following the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE. Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributed by providing intelligence on Iranian activities to assist Israel. The Gaza conflict has already escalated into a regional war. While direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran remains unlikely, the U.S. continues to support Israel, whereas Iran backs its allies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
It is evident that the Gaza war is not merely a conflict between Israel and Hamas. When viewed in a broader context, it is a war between Iran and Israel. Hamas has long been supported by Iran through arms and financial aid. Similarly, Hezbollah and the Houthis have received extensive backing from Iran, making them part of Iran's network of aligned organizations.
Iran’s anti-Israel and anti-U.S. policies began after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Prior to the revolution, Iran was a pro-American state, but the revolution fundamentally altered its trajectory. Declaring resistance against Israel's oppression of the Palestinian people as a national policy, Iran has built a network of allied organizations in the region. This "Axis of Resistance" aims to encircle Israel and create a "ring of fire" as part of its strategy. Following the Gaza war, this axis has effectively formed a ring of fire that is attacking Israel.
Professor Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, predicted the rise of Shia influence in his book The Shia Revival, published in the early 2000s. Until then, the Middle East had been predominantly Sunni-led. Arab nationalism, a secular ideology first discussed in the 19th century, dominated the Arab and Islamic worlds until the Islamic Revolution of 1979. From the 1950s onward, Arab nationalism was the prevailing ideology in the Arab world. After the 1952 Free Officers’ Revolution in Egypt, Gamal Abdel Nasser championed Arab nationalism as a unifying force across the Arab world. However, the appeal of Arab nationalism began to fade after Arab nations suffered a humiliating defeat in the Six-Day War. Following Israel’s swift victory over Egypt and Syria, Arab citizens grew disillusioned with Arab nationalism and were left searching for a new ideology. This gave rise to political Islam, as Islamist thinkers argued that Islam, rather than secular Arab nationalism, was the solution to the region’s challenges.
The Muslim Brotherhood, established in Egypt in 1928 and later spreading across the Arab region, and Islamist movements began gaining prominence during this era. The 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan catalyzed the formation of the Sunni Islamic resistance group, the Mujahideen, while the Iranian Islamic Revolution was a manifestation of the rising Islamic wave sweeping the region. The revolution succeeded due to the persuasive argument of Islamic jurists that Iran, devastated under the corrupt, pro-American Shah Pahlavi, needed to return to Islamic values for its reconstruction. The revolution’s impact rippled across the region. In 1981, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat fell to Islamist gunfire, and in 1982, Iran established Hezbollah in Lebanon. By 1987, the Muslim Brotherhood branch in Gaza rebranded itself as Hamas, initiating its armed struggle against Israel.
Before the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, the U.S. maintained friendly relations with Iran and Gulf states to ensure a stable oil supply. However, after the revolution, Iran adopted an anti-American stance. Subsequently, the U.S. aligned itself with Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Kuwait, pushing forward its Middle East policy. Meanwhile, Shia groups, long overlooked as a significant political force, faced consistent exclusion from power and resources in the region. Shia populations in Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Yemen endured systemic discrimination and were often marginalized. Iraq’s Shia community faced increasing repression under Saddam Hussein, Lebanon’s Shias were pushed to the socio-economic margins by Sunnis and Christians, and Yemen’s Zaydi Shia Houthis suffered discrimination from Sunni rulers before growing into a formidable armed group. Despite multiple ceasefire negotiations with the Yemeni government after 2000, the Houthis failed to reach an agreement and ultimately seized the capital Sana’a in a 2014 coup. Iran capitalized on these marginalized Shia communities, uniting them to reshape the regional balance. In 1982, it organized Lebanon’s Shia factions into Hezbollah. When the Houthi movement in Yemen came under attack from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Iran supplied military aid. The U.S.'s removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003 further strengthened Iran’s position, dismantling Iraq’s Sunni-dominated regime and shifting the regional power balance in favor of Iran. With nearly half of Iraq’s population being Shia, Iran’s influence grew as its militias played a decisive role in defeating ISIS. Today, Iran’s dominance in Iraq is so profound that discussing Iraqi affairs without mentioning Tehran’s role is nearly impossible.
Iran’s hegemony extends beyond alliances. Its arsenal of conventional weapons, especially ballistic missiles and drones, poses a significant threat to neighboring Sunni Arab states. For instance, in 2019, Houthi and Iranian forces attacked two Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities, halving the kingdom’s daily oil output and causing global oil prices to spike. Despite Saudi appeals for intervention, then-U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from retaliating against Iran, likely to avoid escalating tensions.
However, last year’s war initiated by Hamas in Gaza brought about an unexpected seismic shift in the region. Hezbollah, embroiled in a high-stakes confrontation with Israel, suffered substantial losses, including the assassination of key leaders. The group now faces a lengthy and resource-intensive recovery. Lebanese citizens, devastated by Israeli airstrikes, are increasingly blaming Hezbollah for its reckless provocations, even as they hold Israel accountable. Hezbollah’s weakening represents a significant strategic loss for Iran, as the group was a core element of Iran’s contingency plans to retaliate against potential Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities.
During the year-long campaign, Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s presence in Syria and struck a severe blow to Iran’s defense capabilities, destroying air defense systems, ballistic missile factories, and drone production facilities. These developments induced broader geopolitical shifts, culminating in the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime. Since the Arab Spring in 2011, Assad had relied on Iran and Russia to survive a civil war. Yet, the combined pressures of Israel’s military actions, Iran’s economic collapse due to sanctions, and Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine have toppled Assad’s 54-year rule. While this development may seem like a victory, the Syrian opposition includes factions linked to Al-Qaeda, leaving the region’s future uncertain and potentially chaotic.
The Gaza conflict has inflicted a decisive blow on Iran’s "Axis of Resistance," comprising Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime. Iran’s security strategy, built on these three pillars, is now severely compromised. The collapse of Assad’s regime disrupts Iran’s logistical lifeline to Hezbollah. The crippling of Hezbollah undermines Iran’s deterrence strategy against U.S. and Israeli strikes. With only Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s pro-Iran militias remaining, Iran’s regional influence has been significantly diminished. Iran’s remaining strategies are precarious. Its ballistic missile and drone programs, crucial for compensating for its weak air force, have been severely disrupted by Israeli strikes. The final cornerstone of Iran’s security strategy—nuclear development—remains a potential wildcard in this unprecedented crisis. Iran’s next moves will have profound implications for the Middle East’s future, marking a pivotal juncture in the region’s geopolitical evolution.
Trump has expressed his hope for the regional war to end by the time he assumes office on January 20 next year, a stance that appears to have influenced developments. While it was uncertain whether Prime Minister Netanyahu would agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Trump’s remarks seemed to have prompted an actual ceasefire. Although the truce remains fragile, if it holds, one immediate crisis could be averted. Israel managed to include a clause stipulating that Hezbollah forces cannot be stationed south of the Litani River, and that Israeli forces are free to carry out military operations if this condition is violated. Cornered, Hezbollah accepted all of Israel’s terms.
Israel’s primary goal remains preventing Hamas from regaining control over Gaza. To achieve this, it intends to maintain its military presence in the region to block any efforts by Hamas to rebuild. Reports indicate that Trump warned Hamas it would face consequences if hostages were not released and advised Netanyahu to conclude negotiations quickly. These developments have brought progress in ceasefire talks. However, the last major issue in the Middle East is Iran’s nuclear development. Iran is a nuclear threshold state, capable of producing nuclear warheads if it decides to do so. The nuclear issue, reignited when Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, demands resolution by the one who unraveled it. The situation, however, is not straightforward. While Iran seeks to negotiate, any additional U.S. demands—such as restrictions on ballistic missile development or cessation of support for regional proxies—could stall talks.
Trump’s foreign and defense policy team is gradually taking shape. Stephen Miller, of Jewish descent, has been appointed as Deputy White House Chief of Staff. Michael Waltz has been named National Security Advisor, while real estate developer Steven Witkoff, also of Jewish descent, has been designated as Special Envoy to the Middle East, and Mike Huckabee as U.S. Ambassador to Israel. Furthermore, pro-Israel Senator Marco Rubio has been nominated for Secretary of State. The team’s overwhelmingly pro-Israel and hardline stance is widely viewed as unlikely to facilitate Israeli-Palestinian peace or constructive negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s Middle East policy is expected to be heavily influenced by his efforts to bolster the U.S. shale gas industry. His “Drill, Baby, Drill” policy to maximize oil and gas production could drive down oil prices, negatively affecting the finances of Gulf Arab states. A more significant policy move could involve halting Iranian oil exports to China, which would devastate Iran’s economy but risk provoking Tehran. On the other hand, China could compensate by increasing oil imports from Gulf states, potentially boosting their finances. Whether halting Iranian oil exports to China would positively influence nuclear negotiations remains uncertain. Instead, such a move might offend Iran, which places high importance on national pride, leading to stalled talks.
The two most critical issues shaping the Middle East in 2025 are the future of Syria and resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. Stabilizing Syria likely requires U.S. intervention, while pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program might include rhetoric that does not rule out military action. Reports that Trump may consider military options to address Iran’s nuclear program suggest the need to prepare for worst-case scenarios.
※ The opinions expressed in 'Sejong Focus' are those of the author and do not represent the official views of the Sejong Institute
