May 26 Inter-Korean Summit: Background, Implications, and Challenges

 

No. 2018-32 (May 30, 2018)

Dr. Cheong Seong-Chang

Director, Department of Unification Strategy Studies

The Sejong Institute

softpower@sejong.org

 

The second inter-Korean summit between President Moon Jae-in and Chairman Kim Jong-un—North Korea indicates that this is the fourth inter-Korean summit, taking into account Kim Jong-il’s meetings with Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun - was held at Unification House (Tong-il-gak), the northern side of the Panmunjeom from 3 pm to 5 pm on May 26. This was another inter-Korean summit in around a month since the last one on April 27 at Panmunjeom. Last May 16, the North Korean authorities unilaterally called off the inter-Korean high-level talk that was to be held on the same day, blaming it on the ROK-U.S. joint air drill known as Max Thunder and the former North Korean diplomat Thae Yong-ho’s speech at the National Assembly. And on the following day, Ri Son-gwon, the chairman of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country of the DPRK, declared that unless the issues that suspended the inter-Korean high-level talks lie unaddressed, it won’t sit with the current South Korean administration.

North Korea, which posed a hawkish stance against South Korea, actively sought inter-Korean talks all of a sudden in less than ten days since such attitude. President Trump’s proclamation to cancel the June 12 summit on May 24 played a decisive role. Eight and a half hours after President Trump’s notification, the North Korean regime elucidated, in the name of First Vice-Minister Kim Kye-gwan in the morning of the 25th, that it is willing to continue to pursue the summit talks with the U.S. And Kim Jong-un proposed the second inter-Korean summit with President Moon Jae-in in the afternoon of the same day, and the inter-Korean summit was held in the afternoon of the 26th at Panmunjeom.

This flexible and swift reaction from Chairman Kim Jong-un manifests how important he regards the summit with President Trump. President Moon’s mediation decisively contributed to President Trump’s decision to meet Kim Jong-un. Nonetheless, if North Korea scraps the agreement to hold high-level talks with the South Korean government and shows hostility against the Moon administration, Washington will question North Korea’s sincerity. Therefore, the inter-Korean rapprochement is closely intertwined with the success of the DPRK-U.S. summit. That is understandably the reason why Kim Jong-un hastily pushed forward the second inter-Korean summit with President Moon.

Chairman Kim clearly proclaimed ‘the determination for complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’ and explicated his intention to end the history of war and confrontation through the successful meeting with President Trump and to cooperate with the international community for peace and prosperity to President Moon once again at the summit on May 26. And President Trump brought the June 12 summit back on again as such position of Chairman Kim was delivered to the White House via Cheong Wa Dae (the Blue House).

Chairman Kim expressed his concern over whether North Korea could trust U.S. guarantee of regime security in case of the abolition of nuclear weapons. President Moon illuminated that if Chairman Kim proceeds with complete denuclearization, President Trump has firm resolve on ending hostility against North Korea and engaging in economic cooperation. Thus, the June 12 summit is likely to address North Korea's complete denuclearization, U.S. security guarantee of North Korea, and removal of DPRK-U.S. hostility and economic cooperation as the key agendas.

In this inter-Korean summit, the two leaders agreed to hold high-level talks on June 1, followed by military and Red Cross talks consecutively. Nonetheless, the future of inter-Korean relations now largely hinges on the outcome of the summit between North Korea and the U.S. Therefore, the meeting between President Trump and Chairman Kim is crucial for the uninterrupted implementation of the agreements made at the two inter-Korean summits - held on April 27 and May 26—and the stable development of inter-Korean relations.

Nevertheless, the sticking point between North Korea and the U.S. is likely to be the inspection of North Korea's nuclear facilities and verification of nuclear abandonment. Once North Korea transfers its nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles to the U.S., North Korea will fear their negotiation leverage weakened as its nuclear and missile capabilities are exposed to the U.S. So, Pyongyang will rather prefer sending the weapons to China or Russia. And it will also prefer Chinese and Russian inspection on its nuclear facilities rather than those from the U.S. To prevent the denuclearization process from being hindered by the issue of inspection and verification, Seoul and Washington should seek cooperation with Beijing and Moscow.

As for the declaration to end the Korean War after a fruitful summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim, it is desirable to invite the president of China—as well as the three leaders of the two Koreas and the U.S. Currently, the Chinese army is not stationed in North Korea and the military cooperation between North Korea and China is almost non-existent. However, it is worthy to bring China to participate in the declaration to induce active participation from China in the processes of denuclearization and the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and even for the ROK-DPRK-China trilateral economic cooperation in the future. Given the fact that China's active participation in the international sanctions regime against North Korea was decisive to North Korea's eagerness in dialogue with South Korea and the U.S., excluding China, which emphatically expressed the intention to participate in the declaration, is not a wise idea.

The May 26 summit newly demonstrated that the leaders of the two Korea could opt for a practical dialogue, tackling issues without considering the formalities of a summit in case of a strain in the bilateral ties. This means of communication by Chairman Kim will positively affect the inter-Korean relations as well as North Korea's relations with other countries. His two visits to China have significantly improved his image among the Chinese public. For an untroubled development of inter-Korean relations in the future, the South Korean government should approach the issue of adjustment of the ROK-U.S. joint military drills and the defection by North Korean restaurant workers in a forward-looking manner. As North Korea pledged 'complete denuclearization' and committed to it, South Korea and the U.S. should now seriously consider suspending deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula and downsizing joint military exercises.

Mr. Heo Kang-il, the restaurant manager who led the group of restaurant workers to defect to South Korea immediately before the parliamentary elections in April 2016, recently told during an interview with the South Korean media JTBC that he was planning to defect only with his wife, but the South Korean intelligence agency official suddenly called him at night on April 3, 2016, and told to bring all the restaurant workers. He testified that the twelve female workers knew their defection to South Korea only when they arrived in front of the South Korean embassy in Malaysia. Because the defection of this group has been clearly manipulated by the Park Geun-hye administration, the South Korean government should apologize for this incident and provide adequate compensation in the future. Still, the defection issue should be addressed at international organizations and confirm North Korea's intentions via the organizations, and North Korea should not link this issue with the reunion of separated families.