Trembling International Relations after the DPRK-U.S. Summit
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No. 2018-36(July 2, 2018)

Dr. Lee Tai Hwan

Honorary Research Fellow, Department of Diplomacy Strategy Studies

The Sejong Institute

thlee@sejong.org

 

The international relations surrounding the Korean Peninsula is trembling since the DPRK-U.S. summit. Not only is the relations between the U.S. and North Korea underwent twists and turns, but North Korea’s relations with China and Russia also have shown new changes. Japan also expressed interest in mending ties with North Korea. The major powers have hurried in taking steps to improve relations with North Korea as an interest in the role of each country under the Northeast Asian security framework in the denuclearization process and onwards. It is noteworthy to delve into how these changes in international relations unfold and what meaning it entails.

 

A Split Turn in DPRK-PRC Relations and China’s Role

 

The third DPRK-China summit was held on June 19, only a week after the DPRK-U.S. summit. Having three summits in three months is exceptional. And the DPRK-China relations aggravated for the last six years. The two countries urgently need to build trust. However, three summits in three months cannot ensure bilateral trust to be restored completely.

Then, why did North Korea actively hold summits with China swiftly in a consecutive manner? Many experts on North Korea and China evaluated Kim Jong-un’s visit to Beijing this time as an insurance policy, with the U.S. in mind.

North Korea may intend to mollify China’s concerns of so-called ‘China passing’—China being neglected—and to induce China’s cooperation. But first and foremost, North Korea needs China’s support and assistance. In preparing for the follow-up negotiations with the U.S. over denuclearization and security guarantee, North Korea hopes for the alleviation of sanctions and China’s support. In fact, it is reported that North Korea requested China to lift economic sanctions to a certain degree.

Another thing that is worth noting is that Chairman Kim has engaged in diplomacy with major neighboring powers after the June 12 summit using the case with China. As it held summit talks with the U.S. and China, North Korea has enticed Russia and Japan to request summit talks with itself. As China took a step forward, Japan and Russia have competitively made charm offensive toward North Korea. Russia is known to have invited Kim Jong-un for the Eastern Economy Forum in September. Japanese Prime Minister Abe also pursues DPRK-Japan summit.

North Korea’s strategy regarding foreign policy is to remove economic sanctions and receive economic support, manipulating the interest of major powers in their favor. However, despite the moves to circumvent sanctions in some of its region bordering North Korea, China does not want to unilaterally lift sanctions, ignoring UN Security Council resolutions. Also, it will not want to confront the U.S. which demands of maintaining pressure and sanctions against North Korea before denuclearization. China welcomes North Korea in order to maintain its influence on North Korea and broaden its reach, using it as a leverage in negotiations with the U.S. in the strategic framework in Northeast Asia and the establishment of the peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

 

Ultimately, Kim Jong-un’s third visit to China indicates that China’s influence has expanded in the peace process on the Korean Peninsula which was set in motion by the North Korean leader’s meetings with his South Korean and American counterparts. Particularly, China will endeavor to actively participate in the signing the peace accord and take the upper hand in the negotiations with the U.S.

 

U.S.-China Relations and the U.S. Role

 

Washington has poured in several diplomatic efforts to draw Beijing’s cooperation in negotiations with North Korea. First, State Secretary Mike Pompeo visited China and briefed the Chinese government immediately after the U.S. summit with North Korea. Followed by that, Defense Secretary Mattis visited China on June 26, first visit by U.S. defense secretary in four years, and discussed strategic issues between the two countries. And on the 29th, Pompeo called Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss the pending issues including sanctions against North Korea.

The U.S. has strived to maintain the cooperation and coordination mechanism with the key powers, especially China and Russia,—holding the line on sanctions regime against North Korea, prior to the denuclearization talks with North Korea. For instance, China and Russia tried to issue a press statement at the UN Security Council to alleviate sanctions against North Korea, but this was annulled by U.S. opposition. In addition, as President Trump will meet the Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 16, he will consult the cooperation on maintaining the sanctions regime against North Korea.  

At this juncture, the South Korean government’s role in the denuclearization process and the peace process on the Korean Peninsula is gradually becoming crucial. In response to the strengthening DPRK-China relations, the enhancement of ROK-China relations is turning out to be more significant. Seoul should stretch its strategic communications with Beijing as well as Moscow further in an even more diversified fashion. Presidents Moon and Putin discussed ROK-DPRK-Russia trilateral cooperation beyond the bilateral cooperation at the summit on the 22nd. Nevertheless, the cooperation and alliance with the U.S. are of utmost importance.