China’s Role in the North Korean Nuclear Issue in the ‘G-Zero World’
No. 2018-39 (August 17, 2018)
Dr. Lee Seong-hyon
Research Fellow, Department of Unification Strategy
Studies
The Sejong Institute
And Mr. Min Hyunjong
Student, Seoul National University Graduate School of
International Studies
The current North Korean nuclear
issue can create an opportunity for China to engage in a creative diplomacy,
projecting itself as a new leader in the ‘G-Zero World.’ Regarding China’s
foreign policy, the pre-existing notion is that China shows ‘reactive’ attitude
toward emerging issues rather than being ‘proactive’ to foreign policy issues.
This has been frequently addressed in China’s engagement concerning the North
Korean nuclear issue. However, if China demonstrates a ‘proactive’ behavior in
resolving the issue, it would give the international community the opportunity
to discover China’s leadership in foreign affairs. This matches with the
Chinese domestic opinion that China should manifest the principle of ‘striving
for achievement (fenfayouwei)’—which has been advocated in the Xi
Jinping government—primarily in its ‘neighborhood (zhoubian) diplomacy.’ (October 20, 2017,
Li Minjie of China Institute of International Studies).
U.S. President Donald Trump
publicly raised the notion that ‘Xi Jinping is behind North Korea,’ indicating
that Chairman Kim Jong-un changed his attitude after meeting with President Xi
in Dalian. Former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Joseph Yun
said that Xi Jinping would have asked Kim Jong-un to ‘slow down’ the dialogue
with the U.S. at an interview with the New
York Times. (May 24, 2018) As such, being portrayed as a ‘disrupter’ in the
process of peacefully resolving the Korean Peninsula issue could make South
Korea be vigilant toward China. This also negatively affects China’s image at
the international community—against the ongoing promotion of
being a ‘responsible great power.’
It is necessary for Beijing to
take a more active diplomacy regarding North Korea at a larger framework. The
current international community is experiencing an acephalous phenomenon. All
eyes are on China whether it could fill in the vacuum of global leadership that
the U.S. abandoned since Trump’s term in office. The North Korean nuclear issue
can turn out to be the chance to boast its new leadership skills and win the
hearts of other states at the international stage.
In the escalating U.S.-China
competition, China concerns that the U.S. could establish a new strategic
coordination, containing China with the so-called ‘Team America’ along with
North Korea—which the U.S. may successfully entice it out of China’s
orbit. In other words, Beijing fears the possibility of ‘North Korea’s
inclination to the U.S.’ The possibility of a ‘side agreement’ unfavorable to
China during the Trump-Kim summit on June 12 in Singapore grated on China’s
nerves. Accordingly, China feels uncertainty in how the U.S.-led
denuclearization of North Korea will influence both the East Asian international
order and China’s interests—hence it might want to ‘slow down’
the negotiation process between North Korea and the U.S.
Nevertheless, as the increasing anxieties
of prolonging stalemate in DPRK-U.S. negotiations indicate, the East Asian
regional security, not to mention China’s security environment, will once again
face a serious crisis when the negotiations collapse and the North Korea’s
denuclearization fails to proceed further. At a recent academic conference, one
Chinese scholar warned that once the negotiations between Pyongyang and
Washington comes to a standstill, the situation will regress to the previous ‘vicious
cycle’ and the U.S. ‘kinetic option’ against North Korea will be on the cards
again. In other words, China feels at unease with both a speedy advancement in
the negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issue and a lagged development as
well—the latter engendering security
uncertainty to China. Moreover, the latter case will have more pernicious
results for China as it delays North Korea’s denuclearization, escalates
tensions between North Korea and the U.S., and even enlivens the possibility of
Trump’s ‘fire and fury’ being realized in the place where China regards as its
‘threshold,’ the Korean Peninsula. China deemed the time until 2020 as the ‘period
of strategic opportunity (zhanluejiyuqi)’ to build a moderately prosperous
(xiaokang) society and hopes that the
war does not break out in the region during this period. China does not want a
war on the Korean Peninsula because it suits their interest as well. That being
said, South Korea and China largely share commonalities in terms of security
interests.
Meanwhile, the neighboring
countries are agog with how the intensifying power struggle between the U.S.
and China will unfold and who will stand as the reliable leader that can establish
a new global order. At this juncture, the optimal strategy for Beijing in the
international community is to put forth the image of China’s active engagement
in solving the North Korean nuclear issue rather than impeding the current
negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. This serves its national interest
and contributes to relieving the international community’s trepidations
regarding ‘China’s rise.’
China could propound an
alternative to the existing resolution, if necessary. This is in accordance
with the principle of addressing ‘Chinese-style plan’ at the international
venue—something that Chinese diplomacy
emphasizes in the Xi Jinping era. If China’s role and contribution disentangle
the North Korean nuclear issue, neighbors’ support for China will naturally increase,
having a favorable effect on international projects led by China such as the
‘Belt and Road Initiative.’ Furthermore, China’s lone voice calling for the
resumption of the six-party talks will gain strength as the neighbors start to
listen. China’s demand to withdraw the deployment of THAAD on the Korean
Peninsula will also gain legitimacy. The U.S. already expressed several times
that it has no reason to install the missile defense system once the North
Korean nuclear issue is settled.
The U.S. leadership, which
competes with China, constitutes a ‘team.’ It has many friends and allies.
China also needs friends at the global stage. If it cannot win the hearts of
Koreans who are its closest neighbors sharing the Confucian culture and
tradition, China cannot succeed in its soft power strategy to captivate hearts
of the Westerners, who have dissimilar cultures and tradition at a distant
location.
If the international community
gets to the bottom of the North Korean nuclear conundrum, South Korea and China
can broaden their shared economic interests in accordance with the peaceful
future of the Korean Peninsula as one Chinese scholar viewed-China and the
Korean Peninsula are a community of shared geoeconomic destiny. (Professor Jin
Jingyi of Peking University, interview with ShinDong-A
on July 29, 2018) China’s constructive role in solving the North Korean nuclear
issue could heal the scars deep inside Koreans caused by the THAAD retaliation
and appeal to win their favor. Moreover, South Korea’s perception of China may
serve as an ‘important reference point’ for other countries in the Asia-Pacific
region—as South Korea is located beside
China. (An interview with a Southeast Asian scholar in June 2018)
All things considered, it is in China’s interest to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue rapidly by its active involvement rather than taking a bystander/dawdling strategy. In the process, China could earn South Korea’s respect for the leadership, creating close communication and cooperation, and ultimately seek to establish a desired regional order by creating a positive international image. This will signify that the ‘Chinese dream’ that President Xi proclaimed does not dwell in China alone but extends to the Korean Peninsula and embrace the whole of Asia.
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