Analyzing August 7 U.S. Primary and Special Election: Expansion of President Trump’s Support Base within the GOP

 

 

No. 2018-40 (August 20, 2018)

Dr. Park Jee-Kwang

Vice President, Education and Training Office,

The Sejong Institute

jkpark@sejong.org

 

Although it did not capture the South Korean media’s attention, the Ohio 12th Congressional District special election took place on August 7. The Republican candidate Troy Balderson beat the Democratic candidate Danny O’Connor by a narrow margin of 0.9%—50.2% to 49.3%.

Because candidate Donald Trump gained 11% more votes than candidate Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential elections and the Republican candidate recorded 37% more votes than the Democrat counterpart in the House of Representative elections at the same district, the overwhelming majority of media outlets reported this special elections as a de facto loss for the GOP. (i.e. the Chosun Ilbo article had the headline ‘U.S. Republican Party, stands victorious in its ‘backyard,’ Ohio after a tightly-contested race … ‘an ominous result’) These articles indicate that the GOP support base is losing ground, experiencing hard-fought victories even in ‘safe-seats’ and predict that a Blue wave will sweep America in the midterm elections in November.

Meanwhile, President Trump tweeted, “[w]hen I decided to go to Ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down in early voting 64 to 36. That was not good. After my speech on Saturday night, there was a big turn for the better” and added, “[h]e will win BIG in Nov.” Boasting his political clout, President Trump claimed that the candidates that he supports in the midterm elections will snatch an easy victory. Fox News, with the catchy headline “A Giant Red Wave,” asserted that this special election reflects the recently increasing popularity of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

As it seems, the two main political parties in the U.S. construe the outcome of this special election in their favor respectively. However, several reasons encumber the interpretation of the results.

First, it is doubtful whether the concerned district is a red one. Being a rural area, Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is clearly inclined toward the Republic Party. As a matter of fact, the Republicans have represented the district for the last several decades. Nonetheless, the 37-percent margin in favor of the Republican candidate in 2016 is attributable to the incumbent candidate’s popularity. Unlike the 50 percent re-election rate in Korea, the U.S. elections undoubtedly exhibit ‘incumbency effect’ with the incumbency re-election rate exceeding 90 percent. Thus, it is not rare to see the incumbents winning by a margin of 30 to 40 percent. Hence, even though the Republican candidate won by a 37-percent difference in the 2016 House of Representatives election, it is inappropriate to view the district as Korea’s Gwangju or Daegu. Viewing the authoritative Cook Partisan Voting Index that measures the partisanship of the district, the concerned district leans 7 points toward the Republican Party. This indicates that the district shows a weak inclination toward the Republican Party—this signifies that the Republican candidate wins 7 percent more votes on average in various elections. Therefore, it is reckless to regard a 1-percent margin victory for the Republicans in this election between two relatively-unknown candidates as a big loss for the GOP.

Moreover, as Chuck Todd mentioned at the NBC’s Meet the Press, the district witnessed a large population influx from the urban area in the last two years, thanks to the rapid expansion of Ohio’s state capital, Columbus. In other words, a considerable amount of pro-Democratic constituents, who commute to the urban area, moved into the district in the last couple of years. Therefore, the demographic shift should have strongly influenced the relatively feeble record for the Republican candidate at this election. The county-by-county result within the Ohio 12th Congressional District corroborates such conjecture. The voting tendencies noticeably differ between the rural and urban area within the district. In fact, O’Connor was only triumphant in Franklin County, where most of the population commute to Columbus. These facts appear to demonstrate that those who espoused Republicans continue to support the party and the voters who supported President Trump still stand behind Trump.

County	Troy Balderson	Danny O’Connor	Joe Manchik
Franklin	24,829	46,733	317
Delaware	31,750	26,874	226
Licking	23,470	14,813	292
Richland	7,585	5,240	106
Muskingum	7,774	3,842	103
Morrow	5,145	2,144	66
Marion	1,219	562	19

             It is also reasonable for the people to be leery of exceedingly interpreting this election result given that the candidate representing the Republican Party was weak. While it is impossible to objectively assess the personal traits and reputation of the two candidates, the close gap of 121 votes between Troy Balderson and Melanie Leneghan (19,282 votes vs. 19,161 votes) at the primary evince that Balderson has not been an attractive candidate. In contrast, Danny O’Connor easily passed Zach Scott (40.9 percent vs. 16.8 percent) at the Democratic primary.

Nonetheless, all things considered, the Republicans’ favorability ratings have slightly declined compared to the past.

Especially, the turnout ratings for the Democrats in the elections were higher than average. If this turnout stems from anti-Trump sentiments and sustains until the midterm elections, it will greatly contribute to the Democratic Party taking the majority in the House of Representatives. Still, it is unfeasible to foresee a landslide victory for the Democrats taking into account the solid Republican support base proven by this special election.

This special election reaffirmed President Trump’s influence among Republican supporters. It seems indisputable that Trump’s rally in Ohio assisted Balderson’s triumph. And more importantly, those candidates that President Trump endorsed in the Republican primary in Michigan, Kansas, and Missouri on the same day all clinched the party candidacy. This manifests President Trump’s growing foundation within the GOP as all these candidates categorically defended Trump’s policies. Consequently, the scenario postulated by some media—the preterm lame-duck scenario for the Trump administration after the defeat in the midterm elections followed by the Republican lawmakers’ ‘rebellion’—is improbable.