Results of the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and prospects for Japan-South Korea relations
Jin Chang Soo
(jincs@sejong.org)
Director of the Center for Japanese Studies,
the Sejong Institute
This article analyzes the background of Kishida’s victory, predicts the direction of the Kishida administration, and discusses the prospects for Japan-South Korea relations.
An increase in the Liberal Democratic Party’s approval ratings just before the presidential election in September relates to Kishida’s victory. Kishida was elected because the LDP's approval ratings increased and thus weakened the idea of an election crisis and altered the criteria of selecting the president.
The future of the Kishida administration depends first on personnel management. Currently, the expectation of factions resulted in a meritocracy. Second, it will be no exaggeration to say that the key to stability for the Kishida administration lies in its COVID-19 response. Third, party policy differentiation will be important. The LDP's old image may prevail--despite the new launch of the Kishida administration--with the continued influence of Abe and Aso and the surfacing of the Morikake scandal. All in all, the Kishida administration's survival will depend on winning this year's House of Representatives election and next year's House of Councillors election. If Kishida wins both elections, then he will be able to strengthen his leadership and show his administration's identity.
Japan-South Korea relations cannot be very positive. Kishida is expected to reflect and adopt the LDP's hard-line stance. Perhaps, Kishida may not even have much time to think about South Korea. Also, criticism of Japan's public opinion will prevent Japan-South Korea relations from advancing. Right now, South Korea must consider actively promoting the Korea-Japan summit by counting on Kishida's political style that emphasizes communication.
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