Foreign Affairs Outlook for 2022

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Outlook for the international security situation in 2022

Lee Daewoo

(delee@sejong.org)

Director of the Dept. of Diplomatic Strategy Studies, 

The Sejong Institute

English Abstract

The international security situation was very unstable as conflicts between the U.S. and China (hegemony competition) begin in earnest in 2021. The U.S. and China have put pressure on each other through economic sanctions, military buildup and armed demonstrations, coalition forces, and strengthening domestic laws. China is responding in a similar direction to the U.S. pressure policy: economic sanctions against the U.S., building anti-U.S. solidarity, armed demonstrations, and strengthening domestic laws. In Asia, where the U.S. strategy for the Indo-Pacific region is at odds with China's one-on-one plan, conflicts between the South East China Sea maritime territorial dispute and the Taiwan Strait are expected to escalate. With the U.S. midterm elections and China's convention held around November 2010, the U.S.-China conflict is unlikely to ease, but the possibility of a U.S.-China military clash is expected to decrease. As a new Cold War structure centered on the U.S. and China is likely to be established, non-traditional security threats are expected to increase significantly. Moreover, the global economy is expected to remain unstable due to the impact of COVID-19 and the U.S.-China hegemony race.