Prospects of North Korea's Nuclear Missile Development in 2022 and Direction of the Military  

Lee Sangmin

(smlee53@kida.re.kr)

Senior Researcher,

Korea Institute for Defense Analyses

Executive Summary

1. Background, purpose, and direction of strategic provocation

■ Political background and military necessity

○ The need to show off results at political events in April while the only achievement was within the military sector 

○ The necessity to avoid economic sanctions and show off military achievements.

○ Hwasong-15 limits the use of the minimum nuclear deterrence against the United States

■ Securing nuclear deterrence and modernizing conventional weapons systems

○ Tactical nuclear development to improve military utilization of nuclear weapons

○ Improvement of the minimum nuclear deterrence against the United States through quantitative and qualitative development of nuclear weapons

○ Development of modern conventional weapons systems

 2. Scenario for a change of phase and prediction of major strategic provocations

■ Scenario #1: 2022.11.8. Before and after the U.S. midterm elections

○ Assume that a change of phase is necessary within a short period of time 

○ Reversing the U.S.-North Korea relations in the midst of the Ukraine crisis  

■ Scenario #2: Before or after the 2024 U.S. presidential election

○ Assume Republican victory in the next presidential election

○ Negotiating disarmament with the new U.S. government, judging that it will be difficult to achieve the purpose of negotiations, such as lifting sanctions against North Korea in a short period of time. 

■ Prediction of major strategic provocations

○ Military satellites and Hwasong-17 launches in preparation for political events in April

○ Additional nuclear tests and local provocations in September

3. Parallel development strategies for ballistic missiles and space projectiles

■ Background and necessity of parallel development

○ The development of Hwasong-17 is necessary to secure the minimum nuclear deterrence against the United States.

○ Development of Hwasong-17 type propellants and diversion of atmospheric reentry bodies

○ Parallel development of large caliber solid-propellant rocket is necessary 

■ Parallel Development Roadmap

○ Diversion strategy to advance North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities

○ Development of liquid and solid rocket propulsion systems necessary for space projectiles and ballistic missiles

○ Pursuit of North Korean version of A2AD by securing remote detection and tracking technologies such as military satellites

4. Direction of the Military

■ Establish a Korean-style protection strategy and take measures to protect national infrastructure

○ Nuclear and WMD response systems are vulnerable to North Korea's tactical nuclear threat

○ Reduce the effect of North Korea's preemptive surprise attack and expect the effect of suppressing war

○ EMP protection for information and communication infrastructure protection facilities is necessary

○ Expand supply by with low-cost, high-efficiency, lightweight EMP protection system

■ Development and application of military lightweight EMP protection system

○ The nuclear and WMD response systems are vulnerable to EMP attacks that cause serious damage to a wide range of regions at the same time.

○ A lightweight EMP protection system needs to be applied not only to fixed facilities but also to nuclear and WMD response systems such as weapons systems and equipment.

■ Promote revision of the nuclear agreement by actively preventing North Korea from launching space

○ Need to disable North Korea's space launch through aggressive actions

○ Take practical and concrete measures such as Left of Launch (LOL)

○ Promote the development of military preparedness through the revision of the Nuclear Energy Agreement