A Dual Approach of Engagement and Coercion to North Korea Policy: Centered on the Implications of Hu Jintao and Trump's North Korea Policy​

Lee Jae-Jun 

(junlee@jpi.or.kr)

Research Fellow,

Jeju Peace Institute​ 

Executive Summary

○ Need for a change in approach to North Korea's nuclear issue

  - North Korea is expected to test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and conduct additional nuclear tests. Efforts by the international community, including South Korea, to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue are facing setbacks again.

  - The efforts of the international community and South Korea over the past 30 years to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue have failed. Therefore, a new approach to the North Korean issue needs to be taken.

  - Hu Jintao has achieved limited results in terms of regime change and Trump has achieved limited results in terms of denuclearization. A new approach to North Korea can by sought by analyzing their policies.

○ Hu Jintao and Trump's policy shift toward North Korea

  - Hu Jintao and Trump brought about changes in North Korea on different levels.

  - Hu Jintao's market and corporate-centered policy toward North Korea led to a change in the North's capitalist economic system, while Trump's military coercion led to North Korea's participation in denuclearization negotiations.

  - The implication of the two cases is that the policy that should be taken must be changed according to the strategic objectives

○ Dual approach to North Korea policy

  - It is necessary to dualize the U.N. and the U.S. approach to North Korea in line with the goals of denuclearization and North Korea's opening to the outside world.

  - However, while Hu Jintao and Trump's policies toward North Korea were limited on different dimensions, Hu Jintao's policies could not bring about North Korea's denuclearization, and Trump's policies could not induce changes in the North Korean economic system.

  - Even if the U.S.-led coercive policy toward North Korea is pursued with the goal of denuclearizing the North, the South Korean government needs to induce a change in the North Korean regime by pursuing a policy of involvement in the North centered on markets and businesses.