An Analysis of the Results of the Japanese Upper House Election and the Political Trends​

Jin Chang Soo

(jincs@sejong.org)

Senior Research Fellow,

The Sejong Institute

Executive Summary

■ Upper House election results: LDP landslide victory

○ Single-seat winner: 28 of 32 districts won

○ LDP support in non-partisan proportional districts

○ However, the LDP has no strong support.

■ Policy Directions of the Kishida Administration

○ Constitutional amendment is uncertain: despite more than two-thirds of constitutional amendment forces, a constitutional amendment remains uncertain.

○ There is a possibility that the defense capability will be adjusted in terms of content, budget and financial resources.

○ High price measures have hit the limit.

○ For energy, nuclear power generation must be considered for power supply and demand. 

■ Post-Abe political trends

○ The decease of Abe is expected to leave a political vacuum. There is a high possibility that Prime Minister Kishida will have difficulty solving pending issues.

- The question of how to manage the LDP's demands in terms of personnel and policy

- Former Prime Minister Suga's role is likely to emerge

○ The Abe faction is having difficulty creating a new centripetal force, but Kishida is likely to consider the Abe faction for the presidential election.

■ Impact on Korea-Japan relations and Policy Recommendations

○ Currently, Prime Minister Kishida is unable to actively promote Korea-Japan relations.

- Abe's Negative Legacy: Hardline arguments armed with right-wing nationalism

- Current policies will be maintained due to Abe's legacy. 

- Limitations of Kishida's coordinated leadership