Factors of the formation and change of the North Korea-China alliance: Focusing on China's perspective
Zheng Jiyong, Chung jae-hung
(zhengjiyong@fudan.edu.cn, jameschung@sejong.org)
Sejong-KT&G China Fellow, Director, The Sejong Institute, Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University,
Research Fellow, The Sejong Institute
English Abstract
■ Questions raised
○ China is North Korea’s sole neighboring country with a military alliance, united by the same socialist ideology. China and North Korea have maintained a traditional alliance since the signing of the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty in 1961. It is important to objectively recognize and analyze the development and change of the North Korea-China alliance. It is important to objectively understand and analyze the development and change of the North Korea-China alliance
○ Given the growing complexity of the Korean Peninsula due to the recent intensifying strategic competition between the U.S. and China, it is necessary to accurately understand the formation and change of North Korea-China relations
■ Motivation for the formation of the North-China alliance
○ The North Korea-China alliance has maintained mutual support and cooperation militarily and politically since the anti-Japanese armed struggle and the civil war. After the Korean War, which formed strong sympathy in the armed struggle against Japan and called anti-U.S. aid linked with blood, anti-Americanism became an important geopolitical and political factor linking North Korea-China relations
○ Since the Korean War, China-North Korea relations and Taiwan issues have been closely linked, and the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party recognizes Taiwan and North Korea as strategies for military security with the U.S. within the First Route
○ In various treaties and agreements signed between North Korea and China, China said it supports North Korea's position to resolve the reunification of the Korean Peninsula on its own, and that it will respect North Korea's position by excluding any foreign interference
■ Factors of weakened and loosened North Korea-China alliance
○ After Deng Xiaoping took power, China's foreign policy direction changed to improve relations with Western countries, including the U.S., and conflicts between North Korea and China began to arise
○ Kim Jong-il, who was handed over new power from Kim Il-sung, also criticized China as a socialist country with a revisionist stance, sparking strong opposition from the Chinese Communist Party leadership
○ The deterioration of Sino-Soviet relations, the improvement of U.S.-China relations, and the full-fledged reform and opening of Deng Xiaoping's leadership have had a direct impact on the relationship between North Korea and China. Accordingly, China's policy toward North Korea has also changed
■ The advent of the post-Cold War and the rift in the North Korea-China alliance
○ Faced with international isolation and economic crisis prior to the normalization of South Korea-Soviet and South Korea-China relations, North Korea asked China for large-scale economic aid. However, China, at that time, reacted coldly due to various domestic and international factors such as the full-fledged socialist market economy and the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea
○ China sent a high-level delegation to restore relations with North Korea after the normalization of diplomatic relations between South Korea and China, but North Korea turned a blind eye to China’s security concerns and began nuclear development in earnest and chose a head-on confrontation with the U.S., engendering diplomatic and security conflicts
○ After China's rapid economic development and improved U.S.-China relations after the end of the Cold War, ideological factors have weakened significantly in China's policy toward North Korea, making national interests the most important factor
■ Intensifying U.S.-China Strategic Competition and the consolidation of North Korea-China alliance
○ Xi Jinping leadership's perception of North Korea is a combination of the past, present and future, and the most important factor is that it cannot give up its strategic geopolitical and geographical values of North Korea as the regional order begins to be reorganized due to the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition
○ Due to the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and prolonged COVID-19, Xi Jinping's new policy toward North Korea is to promote internal and external stability and expand its influence through North Korea by seeking a new strategic relationship
○ Xi Jinping's leadership is seeking to establish a Northeast Asian multilateral economic cooperation organization (South Korea, North Korea, China, Russia Mongolia, and Japan) to establish a new 21st-century relationship with North Korea and promote political and economic relations with North Korea in line with the rapidly changing international order
■ Key Implications
○ The relationship between North Korea and China has shown certain ups and downs and developments through the interaction of historical, ideological, internal and external factors and variables, but most importantly, it can be defined as an inseparable special relationship
○ After the 20th National Convention, President Xi Jinping's long-term re-election system will be established, and to achieve the goals of realizing a socialist power with Chinese Characteristics in 2049, the strategic competition between China and the U.S. will continue to intensify with the arrival of a new multipolar international order. As North Korea's geopolitical and geographical importance increases, the relationship between North Korea and China is expected to strengthen strategically
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