China's Geopolitical Risks A Chinese Perspective

Yongbeum Kang

Visiting Research Fellow 

Today's international situation is becoming volatile. Tragedies of war and conflict continue to unfold in many parts of the world. The U.S.-China strategic competition has become a complex, three-dimensional, and all-round confrontation, there is a dominant view that the United States and China have already entered a new Cold War.

The geopolitical risks facing China are increasing as the trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan, and North Korea's close ties with Russia have escalated the crisis on the Korean Peninsula and created a confrontation of factions in Northeast Asia.

The U.S.-Japan alliance is being upgraded under the pretext of the so-called “China threat,” and Korea-China relations are transitioning. Relations between North and South Korea have also shifted back to a more hostile phase.

China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, has outlined four major priorities for China's foreign policy in 2024. These are: △to play the role of a responsible great power, △to consolidate and expand its global partnership network, △to advocate for constructing an equitable and orderly multipolar world, △and to vigorously promote comprehensive and inclusive economic globalization. In this context, China's future foreign policy should mainly focus on the following points.

❍ First, US-Sino relations should be handled in a “compete but avoid conflict” (斗而不破) manner.

❍ Second, it should promote positive interactions among the three countries to prevent the trilateral cooperation from developing into an 'anti-Chinese alliance'.

❍ Third, China needs to redefine its relationship with North Korea promptly. A war on the Korean Peninsula will be the greatest security risk to China, so China's ultimate goal is to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to prevent another war on the peninsula.

❍ Fourth, political trust between China and South Korea must be strengthened. Promoting visits between President Yoon and President Xi as soon as possible and institutionalizing trust-building between the two countries.​