The Result of Japan’s House of Councillors Election:

Scoreboard of Abe

Dr. Chang Soo Jin

Director of the Center for Japanese Studies,

the Sejong Institute

jincs@sejong.org

Executive Summary

○ The Meaning of 2019 House of Councillors Election in Japanese Politics

― As a result of this election, the ruling party (Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito (NKP)) secured a stable majority. and the Abe administration will continue. Furthermore, Prime Minister Abe’s influence within the LDP is also expected to continue.

― Although the ruling party secured the majority in this election, it failed to score the 2/3 of seats which are required for the constitutional amendment. Thus, it will be hard for Abe to push for the constitutional reform.

― The role of NKP grew as the LDP failed to achieve a single majority in the House of Councillors.

― The LDP obtained 57 seats in the House of Councillors. Even if it includes the seats that it had already secured, the LDP has scored 113 seats out of 245 seats. It falls short of 123 seats and thus, failed to secure the single majority in three years.

○ The Constitutional Amendment will be Difficult.

― A few Korean media forecasted that Abe would push for constitutional amendment even by drawing in opposition parties since he has been aggressive toward the constitutional amendment. But numerous obstacles await for Abe in making such revision. If Abe pushes for the constitutional amendment, he may succeed doing so by giving up article 9.

○ The Prospect of Future Political Affairs

― Abe will continue to use the House of Representatives election as a bargaining chip and lead political affairs. Abe may fill his term up to October 2021. But rather than completing his term, he may make other decisions after next year's Olympics. The most realistic scenario is Abe resigning after the Olympics or after the election of the House of Representatives.

○ Implications for Korea-Japan relations

― The result of election does not indicate any reason for Abe to improve ROK-Japan relations. Therefore, there is a high possibility of Abe being tough on Korea. First, it is very likely to delete Korea from Japan’s “white list,” which is scheduled for August. Based on this move, Abe will attempt to put more pressure on Korea. He has also forewarned the execution of countermeasures in case of official liquidation of the assets of Japanese companies, which were ordered by the South Korean Supreme Court to compensate former Korean workers who were forced into labor during the colonial period.

※ Translator’s note: This is a summarized unofficial translation of the original paper which was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper.

※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.