Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election Result Review and Overall Implications

Jae-hung Chung

Director of Center for Chinese Studies

jameschung@sejong.org

GyuBeum Kim

gbkim826@sejong.org​

Visiting Research Fellow

The Sejong Institute

❍ Taiwan's 2024 Presidential and Legislative Election Results and Taiwanese Public Sentiment

- In the Taiwanese Presidential Elections held on January 13, 2024, DPP candidates Lai Ching-Te and Hsiao Bi-Khim won 40.05% of the vote, and in the Legislative Council elections held on the same day, the KMT won 52 seats and the DPP won 51 seats.

- Lai Ching-Te's victory was largely because, despite widespread anti-DPP sentiment, a significant number of votes were split between the KMT and the People's Democracy Party(PDP). In particular, strong support from the youth and middle class helped to propel Ko Wen-je to victory in the 3rd district. Kuo's strong showing in District 3, with 26.46% of the vote, contributed to the DPP's victory.

- As anti-China sentiment consolidated internally in Taiwan, all candidates sought to hold their distance from China. However, it's hard to say that Taiwanese public opinion has completely turned "anti-China," with the majority favoring the U.S. as a counterweight to a more assertive China. The majority of Taiwanese public opinion favors a "strategic balance" and a "status quo" that uses the U.S. to keep its distance from an assertive China.

❍ Lai Ching-Te's personality and policy outlook

- Lai Ching-Te is a Taiwanese-born mainstream DPP politician who has characterized himself as "a pragmatic worker for Taiwan's independence." On the issue of Taiwan's identity and independence, he is more hawkish than former President Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen on issues of Taiwanese identity and independence.

- However, during the election process, Lai Ching-Te moderated his stance and pledged to continue President Tsai Ing-wen's foreign policy and not to "declare Taiwan's independence.

- Rather than provoking China by redefining Taiwan's identity, Lai Ching-Te is expected to leverage the U.S.-China strategic confrontation and deepening public dissent in Taiwan to reduce its dependence on China and strengthen its independence. independence from China.

❍ Prospects for U.S.-China relations and cross-Strait relations

- The Lai Ching-Te administration is expected to pursue "de-Chinaization," and China is expected to respond with intense diplomatic and military pressure, making it unlikely that cross-Strait dialogue will resume or that relations will improve dramatically.

- While the confrontation between the U.S. and China over the Taiwan issue will continue, both the U.S. and China agree on the need for crisis management. Given the structural nature of cross-strait relations as managed by the U.S.-China relationship, war is unlikely to occur. However military pressure from China is likely to be at the level of the August 2022 Taiwan blockade exercise.

- The administration should avoid unnecessary confrontation and debate with China on the Taiwan issue and approach the cross-Strait issue under the guiding principle of the One-China principle, which is recognized by the international community, including the United States.

- Our government should explore areas of engagement with the newly elected Lai Ching-Te administration while keeping a close eye on changes in cross-Strait relations and global supply chains to ensure that we are proactive in capitalizing on the opportunities available to our businesses in both the global and Chinese markets. We need to be proactive to capitalize on opportunities in both the global and Chinese markets.