Kim Jong Un's order to prepare for "pacification" of the South in the event of a war and assessing the ruptured ties with North Korea

Seong-Chang Cheong

Director of Center for Korean peninsula Strategy

softpower@sejong.org

❍ North Korean Workers' Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un's December 2023 remarks to the eighth plenary session of the Party Central Committee and his corrective speech on January 15, 2024, to the 10th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly indicated his readiness to "pacify" the South in the event of a war and the complete severing of inter-Korean relations.

- While Kim touts the establishment of the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group and the expansion of U.S.-Japan military cooperation as reasons for this extremely hostile stance, the U.S. and South Korea's responses have been designed to counter North Korea's overt nuclear threats to the South since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

- North Korea's overt nuclear threats to the South are largely driven by confidence in new achievements in the defense sector, including the successful test launch of a solid-fuel ICBM and reconnaissance satellite in 2023, as well as the restoration of the ROK-U.S. military alliance and expanded military cooperation.

❍ In his corrective speech to the Supreme People's Assembly, Kim Jong-un also pointed out that the phrase "independence, peace, and national unity," the three principles of national reunification outlined in the 1972 July 4 Joint Statement, should be removed from the Constitution.

- He also ordered the "irreparable" physical disconnection of the northern section of the Gyeongui Line, a symbol of inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, and the demolition of the Monument to the Three-Point Charter for National Reunification, which "stands ugly" at the southern gateway to the capital, Pyongyang.  

-  Monument to the Three-Point Charter for National Reunification refers to Kim Il-sung's principles for reunification, including the Three Principles for the Reunification of Peace, The Ten Points for National Unity, and the Plan for the Reunification of the Democratic Federal Republic of Korea. The pagoda was built in 2001 by Kim Jong-il to honor Kim Il-sung's 'Unification Precepts' in 2001 to honor Kim Il-sung's "unification precept.

- In this way, Kim Jong-un has completely scrapped the legacy of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il's unification policies.

❍ While Kim Jong-un has severed inter-Korean ties and expressed hostility toward the South on several occasions, this time he disbanded the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, the National Economic Cooperation Bureau, Bureau for the Mount Kumgang International Tourism, the National Reconciliation Council, and the North Korean Committee for the Implementation of the June 15 Joint Declaration, Dangun National Unification Committee showing his passion to disband North-South relation.

- North Korea has shut down the South Korean propaganda sites "Among Our Peoples," "Echo of Unification," and "DPRK Today," and stopped broadcasting the South Korean state radio "Pyongyang Broadcasting Station (PBS)," which had been sending instructions to South Korean spies.

❍ Kim Jong Un has called for the complete removal of the concepts of "reunification," "reconciliation," and "kinship" from North Korean history.

- Kim Jong-un's dramatic shift in North-South policy over the past month makes it nearly impossible to restore inter-Korean relations.

- Therefore, a corresponding shift in South Korea's security and North Korean policies has become inevitable.

❍ Kim Jong-un's pursuit of a complete severance of inter-Korean relations is largely driven by North Korea's sense of defeat in the competition against South Korea due to the widening gap in economic power.

- In particular, the influence of South Korean dramas and K-pop has made North Korean youth admire the South, and as a result, North Korean international students defect first and their parents defect with them.

- Therefore, North Korea's measures to cut off inter-Korean relations have led to strong oppression against those who watch South Korean dramas.

❍ North Korea's move to cut off all inter-Korean relations is closely linked to preparations for the fourth-generation succession to Ju Ae Kim.

- North Korea's December 31, 2023, Rodong Sinmun signaled Kim Jong-un's intention to sever ties with South Korea, and the January 1, 2024, Rodong Sinmun showed off Ju Ae Kim's elevated status.

❍ In response to Kim Jong-un's recent comments, some U.S. experts claimed that "the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than at any time since the beginning of June 1950," and noted that "Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war, just as his grandfather did in 1950."

- Other U.S. experts argue that "the idea that a nuclear war could break out in Northeast Asia in 2024 should at least be on the table."

❍ It is noteworthy Kim Jong-un's blatant and persistent mentioning of the use of nuclear weapons to "occupy" South Korean territory in the event of an emergency, as he did make a speech at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year in front of hundreds of key members of Workers' Party, military, and state officials.

- Therefore, it is highly irresponsible and complacent to argue that "barking dogs do not bite" in response to Kim Jong-un's threats and that we should not be swayed by North Korea's threat.

❍ In Kim Jung-un's corrective speech to the Supreme People's Assembly in January, "No boundary line, including the illegal and lawless 'Northern Limit Line,' is acceptable, and if South Korea violates our territory, airspace, or territorial waters by even 0.001 millimeters, it will be considered a provocation for war, indicating its refusal to recognize the NLL and its determination to change the status quo.

- North Korea began firing coastal artillery into waters north of Yeonpyeong Island and Baengnyeong Island in the West Sea at the beginning of the year.

- The South Korean military has vowed to defend the NLL, so if North Korean patrol boats attempt to violate and neutralize the NLL, armed conflict between the two Koreas is likely to occur.

- North Korea may take advantage of the U.S. presidential election this year to focus attention on international affairs, and may even launch artillery attacks on Baengnyeong Island, Daecheong Island, and Sochung Island based on its confidence in its nuclear and missile capabilities, ROK military should consider and prepare for its provocation.

❍ Currently, both North and South Korea pose an "overwhelming response" to the other's provocations, so if North Korea drops a single artillery shell into South Korean territory, the South Korean military would have to fire about 10 shells, North Korea would respond with about 100 shells, and the South Korean military would respond with about 1,000 shells. and the South Korean military would have to respond with about 1,000 shells again.

- Therefore, if both South Korea and North Korea maintain an "overwhelming response," North Korea, which is at a conventional weapons disadvantage, could respond with tactical nuclear weapons, EMP, or a nuclear torpedo, resulting in a small armed conflict between the two Koreas which could lead to nuclear war within a short period.

- Therefore, in the event of North Korea's attempt to neutralize NLLs, the ROK military should refrain from an "overwhelming response" or overreaction, and instead take a decisive but restrained and proportionate response.

❍ The reality is that South Korea does not have the internal capability for nuclear armament, and it is urgently needed to secure its nuclear potential.

- To this end, it is necessary for South Korea, the United States, and Japan to establish a trilateral international consortium to produce and supply enriched uranium for civilian nuclear power plants.

- Currently, Russia's Rosatom accounts for 46% of the enriched uranium market share and China for 10-15%, and they supply enriched uranium to 450 civilian nuclear power plants around the globe.

- Therefore, if Russia or China were to reduce their enriched uranium supply, it would pose a serious threat to global nuclear energy security.

- The establishment of a trilateral international consortium between South Korea, the United States, and Japan would also lead to a natural revision of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Agreement, which currently limits South Korea's nuclear potential.

❍ As it is impossible for South Korea, a non-nuclear state, to achieve peaceful reunification with North Korea, a "de facto nuclear weapons state," in the foreseeable future, and as North Korea has fears of an absorptionist reunification, the South Korean government should take this opportunity to consider changing the name of the Department of Unification to the Ministry of Inter-Korean Relations or the Ministry of Inter-Korean Peace and Cooperation.

- In West Germany, the Ministry of the Interior, which handled relations between East and West Germany, served as the equivalent of South Korea's Ministry of Unification. Although West Germany's Ministry of the Interior did not include the term "reunification," it did not make reunification between East and West Germany difficult.

- And when inter-Korean dialogue resumes, it should seek bipartisan cooperation on agreements between the two Koreas, not producing "agreements" that are not subject to parliamentary ratification while treating the relationship as a "special relationship," as in the past, but by promoting the signing of "treaties" that are subject to parliamentary ratification, as between ordinary countries and as in the past between East and West Germany.​