Prospects for North Korea's changes in South Korea · foreign elites and policy changes: with Lee Seon-kwon and Choe Son-hui at the center

Cheong Seong-Chang

(softpower@sejong.org)

Director of the Center for North Korean Studies, 

the Sejong Institute

Executive Summary

○ The influence and autonomy of the power elite in authoritarian regimes such as North Korea are very limited compared to the power elite in democratic countries, but the higher ranks people move up, the more information they have about the outside world, and they have a certain degree of autonomy.

  - Therefore, when negotiating with North Korea, it is very important to understand the position, influence, and discretion of the North Korean leadership.

 ○ Lee Seon-kwon, who has participated in inter-Korean military talks for a long time since 2006, will serve as chairman of the Committee for the Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland, a North Korean organization that has been in charge of inter-Korean talks with the Ministry of Unification. 

- The transfer of Lee Seon-kwon, an expert in military talks, to the inter-Korean talks department is closely related to Kim Young-chul's succession of the post of secretary to the South and director of the United Front Department after Kim Yang-gun's death in December 2015.

  - After Kim Jong-un announced his intention to participate in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in 2018, Lee Seon-kwon began to take the lead in inter-Korean talks.

○ Kim Young-chul, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Party and head of the United Front Department, lost his status since the Hanoi North American summit broke down in February 2019; however, Lee Seon-kwon's status continued to rise.

  - Lee Seon-kwon was appointed as Foreign Minister in January 2020, and moved from Foreign Minister to Director of the United Front in June this year, finally taking overall control of South Korean policy.

○ Choe Son-hui was in charge of interpreting the North Korea-U.S. negotiations and the six-party talks until the first half of 2010, when she was appointed Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs (North American portfolio) in October, and gradually took an important role. 

- Since then, Choe Son-hui was promoted to Director-General of the North American department.in September 2016 and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs in February 2018.

○ Choe Son-hui was unable to accompany Kim Young-chul, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Party, to the U.S., ahead of the North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi in February 2019. 

- Choe Son-hui failed to participate in the preparation process for the second U.S.-North Korea summit, but when the talks broke down, she quickly conveyed to the international community Kim Jong-un's dissatisfaction and change of attitude toward whether the U.S.-North Korea negotiations would continue

- As a result, Choe Son-hui was appointed First Vice Foreign Minister, the second-in-command position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in April 2019, and Lee Seon-kwon was promoted to the position of head of the United Front of the Party Central Committee in June 2022. 

○ Both Lee Seon-kwon and Choe Son-hui have risen significantly since the Kim Jong-un administration, and they are well aware of Kim Jong-un's intentions.

- They are well-coordinated with Kim Yo Jong, who is currently in charge of North Korea's policy toward South Korea and the U.S., and it is expected that Kim Yo Jong's policy control will increase in the future 

○ Some experts took the example of North Korea entering a strong phase in 2017 and engaging in inter-Korean and North American dialogue in 2018, and predicted that North Korea will enter a strong phase this year and enter a dialogue phase next year.

- The possibility cannot be ruled out that North Korea will continue to test-fire intercontinental ballistic missiles by conducting its seventh nuclear test this year and try to hold talks with the U.S. and South Korea next year.

- However, in 2018, both South Korean and U.S. presidents were active in direct talks with Kim Jong-un, and North Korea was seriously isolated due to the failure to restore relations between China, but now the possibility of progress in North Korea-U.S. talks is low.

○ The Yoon Seok-yeol administration needs to make efforts to manage the crisis so that military conflicts between the two Koreas would not escalate, while preparing for the deterioration of inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea relations in the future 

  - In response to North Korea's provocations, it is desirable to send a resolute and restrained message.

  - It is undesirable for South Korea to adopt power-to-power confrontation against North Korea either for South Korea's image or economy. 

- Since North Korea has not participated in any foreign negotiations due to concerns over the spread of COVID-19, it is necessary to maintain dialogue channels between the South's National Intelligence Service and the North's United Front Department, utilize China's influence on the North, and build a foundation for recall talks with the North

due to concerns over the spread of the new coronavirus infection in Korea, it is necessary to maintain dialogue channels between the South Korean NIS and the North Korean Unification Front.

○ North Korea is expected to further strengthen its anti-U.S. cooperation with China and Russia as Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who frequently participated in North Korea-U.S. or multilateral talks in Beijing, was appointed as a foreign minister in June. 

  - In response to North Korea's rapid advancement of its nuclear and missile capabilities while using the U.S.-China strategic competition, the South Korean government should actively pursue trilateral high-level talks and cooperation on its policy toward North Korea.