Kim Ju-ae's position in North Korea and the prospect of a fourth generation of succession

Seong Chang Cheong

Director of Center for Korean Peninsula Studies

softpower@sejong.org

❍ There is much confusion in our society about North Korea's “designation” of a successor and the “formalization” of a successor, and sometimes these two terms are used interchangeably.

- As a result, many experts and media are asking the question, “Is Kim Ju-ae the successor?

- While Kim Ju-ae's succession is possible at a distant possibility, her current position in North Korea allows for the assessment that she is being groomed as Kim Jong Un's successor and receiving succession lessons.

​❍ ​North Korea is a de facto “monarchy,” but officially denies this and publicly presents itself as a “socialist republic".

- Therefore, the supreme leader cannot publicly decide his or her children as successors at a young age.

- Because of this, both Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un were “designated” as successors by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il at a young age and were given “succession lessons,” but this was never publicized at the time.

- And Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un were not publicly recognized as successors until their power base was firmly established.

❍ The great confusion in South Korean society regarding Kim Ju-ae's current status stems from a lack of understanding of the three stages of North Korea's succession process.

- In the past, Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong-un could be analyzed as having gone through three stages: 'internalization and succession lessons → 'internal formalization' → 'and external formalization'.

- However, due to Kim Jong Il's health problems and early death, Kim Jong Un went through the stages of 'internal formalization' and 'external formalization' of the successor in a very short period and did not receive enough 'succession lessons'.

- The hardships and suffering that Kim Jong-un has had to endure as well as his health problems due to his extreme obesity, may have contributed to Kim Jong-un's decision to start Kim Ju-ae's “succession lessons” early.

❍ Based on testimony from foreign officials who have traveled to North Korea and met with the Kim family and spent several days with them in Wonsan, the possibility of the existence of Kim Jong-un's son is close to zero.

- Kim Ju-ae's sibling is most likely a daughter.

- If Kim Jong-un had no sons and only daughters, he would have no alternative but to name his eldest daughter, Kim Ju-ae, as his successor.

❍ North Korea has been using terms like “honored” and “esteemed” to describe Kim Jong Un since the first public appearance of Kim Ju-ae in November 2022.

- The term “esteemed” is currently only used in North Korea for Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong Un, and Kim Jong-suk (Kim Il-sung's wife).

- In North Korea, the term “honored” is currently used to refer to foreign heads of state and to Hyon Chol-hae, who played an important role in establishing Kim Jong Un's succession system.

- It is difficult to find examples of the North Korean Workers' Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun using the term “esteemed” for specific individuals during Kim Jong Un's era, except for one instance when it was used for Kim Jong Un's wife; Ri Sol Ju.

- The current use of the phrase “esteemed” for Kim Ju-ae is believed to have a similar meaning to the words “respected youth leader,” which was used to refer to Kim Jong Un during his succession training.

​❍ ​Kim Ju-ae is now protocoled to after Kim Jong Un at various events.

- In February 2023, Kim Ju-ae was seated in the “guest seat” behind Kim Jong Un at a ceremony, but in September, she was seated right next to Kim Jong Un in the “special seat of the presidency,” as her status continues to rise.

- There was also an unusual phenomenon of top military officials kneeling to talk to Kim Ju Ae, and photos of Kim Ju Ae with her face more prominent than Kim Jong Un's in Rodong Sinmun.

- By 2024, Rodong Sinmun was addressing Kim Jong Un separately after Kim Jong Un and before other top-level officials, and using honorifics only for Kim Jong-un, blatantly signaling Kim Jong-un's dominance over key officials.

​❍ ​North Korea has made it clear through public statements since 2022 that it will “never” give up nuclear weapons and that nuclear and missile development will continue in the post-Kim era.

- Therefore, a future transfer of power to Kim Ju-ae would not change the threatening nature of the regime in any significant way.

- Given that Kim Ju-ae's public activities have been focused on the military, it is possible that North Korea could become more belligerent after Kim Ju-ae's rise to power in the future.

- Therefore, a North-South nuclear balance with South Korea's nuclear armament is essential to change the calculus of Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju-ae, prevent North Korea from using nuclear weapons, and bring North Korea to the table.​