Review of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy and the direction of strategic cooperation between South Korea and the U.S.

Cheong Seong-Chang

(softpower@sejong.org)

 ■ The Biden administration’s view of North Korea and policy review

○ Joe Biden negatively described Kim Jong-un as ‘dictator’, ‘tyrant’, ‘butcher’, ‘thug’ during his presidential campaign

 - Biden did not favorably assess the three summits between the U.S. and North Korea. The Biden administration is unlikely to abide by the agreements made at the Singapore summit

○ Vice President Kamala Harris also describes Kim Jong-un as a ‘dictator,’ but is not as aggressively criticizing Kim as President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken

 - Harris maintains a relatively flexible view on negotiating denuclearization with North Korea, including easing sanctions.

○ Secretary of State Blinken also negatively described Kim Jong-un as ‘one of the worst tyrants in the world’

 - However, Blinken is maintaining a realistic view to say that negotiating with North Korea for ‘armament reduction’ is necessary. It is impossible for North Korea to completely denuclearize in a short period of time.

○ Since the inauguration of the Biden administration on January 20^th, the U.S. has been reviewing existing policies toward North Korea.

 - The U.S. Department of State, upon reviewing its policy toward North Korea, tried to contact North Korea since mid-February; however, it failed.

- Through Choi Son-hui’s message, North Korea clarified that it will continue to ignore contacts from the U.S. until the U.S. withdraws its hostile policies toward North Korea.

○ The Biden administration has been reviewing its North Korea policies by listening to its allies and confirming the possibility of China’s cooperation through the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Japan and Korea from March 15th to March 18th,  U.S.-China high-level talks in Alaska on March 18th, and U.S.-Japan-South Korea National Security Advisors’ meeting in Washington D.C. on April 2nd.

 - The U.S. will soon announce denuclearization as a central factor and human rights issue in North Korea as an essential factor in the U.S. policies toward North Korea

■ The direction of strategic cooperation between South Korea and the U.S.

○ It is important for the Biden administration to establish a joint strategy with South Korea to halt North Korea’s advancement of nuclear capabilities and draw up nuclear reduction

 - It is desirable to institutionalize a strategic consultation channel between South Korea's Director of National Security and the National Security Advisor of the U.S.—not Trump’s South Korea-U.S. working group

○ When negotiating denuclearization with North Korea resumes, North Korea must promise to submit a comprehensive report of the total amount of nuclear weapons that it has developed and freeze its nuclear program

- When North Korea promises to submit a comprehensive report and freeze its nuclear program, the U.S. and the international community must consider easing some sanctions and temporarily suspending or reducing U.S.-South Korea joint drills

○ To reduce North Korea's nuclear capability and ease sanctions, North Korea may consider a plan to reduce its nuclear capability by 10% every year over a period of 10 years so that sanctions can also be eased about 10% a year

- It is desirable to promote normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations and sign a peace treaty when ⅓ to ½ of denuclearization has been promoted—not at the final stage of denuclearization

○ China’s cooperation is essential in order to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue since China has the most—although limited—power to influence North Korea.

 - In order to attract active cooperation from China, the U.S., China, and South Korea must use four-party talks with North Korea, and even six-party talks with Japan and Russia, and discuss denuclearization of North Korea and the corresponding measures.

 - Currently, China looks favorably upon holding four-party talks as a way to resolve the conflict between the U.S. and China. Former and current U.S. government officials are also in favor of holding a four-party or a six-party talk.

 - It is desirable to first agree on the denuclearization of North Korea and the international community’s appropriate measures at the four-party talk and then expand the talk to a six-party talk

○ The South Korean government should not avoid discussing North Korean human rights issues, but must closely consult with the U.S. on how to efficiently improve North Korean human rights

- The U.S. government must recognize that sending flyers to North Korea through groups of defectors is not the only way to send information to North Korea; in fact, it renders a negative effect

※ Translator’s note: This is a third party’s unofficial translation of the original paper that was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper.

※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.  

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