Insights into and Prospects for Afghanistan

Lee Woonghyeon

(zveza@korea.ac.kr)

Professor,

Korea University

Executive summary

○ Afghanistan marked the end of 42 years of a series of wars—since the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1979—with the withdrawal of the U.S. troops in August 2021.

○ The return of the Taliban, which not only replaced the U.S. troops but also seized Kabul, forces major powers that have established geographically and historically direct and indirect relationships with Afghanistan to re-examine or devise new policies.

○ Afghanistan's topography and ethnic composition have limited Kabul's central power, and Pashtun has traditionally maintained state power. In 2021, Pashtun declared the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

○ Afghanistan has not only been invaded by the three most powerful countries in history but also expelled those invasions; Afghans are proud of Afghanistan.

○ After all, Afghans must prioritize their survival and safety. For their survival and safety, they either resist invasion or (partly) participate in them for practical reasons.

○ Since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. has focused on establishing a coalition government, suppressing rebels such as the Taliban, strengthening the Kabul regime's local administrative capabilities, and training Afghan troops. However, the U.S. policy objectives could not be achieved due to Afghanistan's corrupt culture and nepotism, dependence on the Taliban-shadow government, and the traditionally powerful local tyrants and warlords.

○ Upon invading Afghanistan, the U.S. troops have shifted their goal to establish a nation-state instead of simply sweeping the Taliban and expelling Al Qaeda. In other words, the U.S. sought to transform a nepotist country into a Western version of a politically ethical state.

○This alone can be described as a failure of the U.S. invasion. However, as the withdrawal plan has been established and implemented since the previous administration, it cannot be described as a lost war—if the withdrawal operation is carried out step-by-step, smoothly. Nonetheless, the sudden collapse of the Kabul government (the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan) and the swift capture of power by the Taliban suggest that the U.S. may have been routed.

○ In fact, the Taliban has controlled almost the entire region of Afghanistan. The U.S. and the Taliban have left the security of the Kabul government fragile.

○ According to the Doha Agreement of February 2020, the Taliban had promised to not threaten the U.S. or provide the territory for potential threatening forces so that the U.S. continues to provide aid to

○The U.S. and the Taliban are expected to work together to prevent the agreement from falling into scraps. The second Taliban regime is expected to adopt a flexible policy unlike the first Taliban regime had. A shift in generations among the Taliban and Afghans, and their continued interaction with the international community may result in changed actions. The U.S. and the international community must be aware of the results of having isolated the first Taliban regime.

※ Translator’s note: This is a third party’s unofficial translation of the original paper that was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper.

※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.