21st Century U.S.-China hegemonic competition and China-Russia strategic relations: implications for security in Europe and Asia

Chung Eunsook

(chunges@sejong.org) 

Director of the Department of Security Strategy Studies,

The Sejong Institute

Executive Summary

○ This brief reviews China-Russia relations in the era of great power competition and looks at implications for security in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

○ The two Eurasian powers, which were close to defining each other as enemy states through the ideological dispute during the Cold War and bloody border clashes, declared a "strategic partnership” in 1996, after the end of the Cold War. Since their alliance was not officially declared, they could not necessarily coordinate military operations against the U.S. Nonetheless, China and Russia—whether intentionally or unintentionally—are capable of supporting the region (Europe and Asia) to effectively challenge the U.S. and its allies.

○ China's rapid rise and military development led the U.S. to shift its attention and military resources from Europe to Asia. In other words, European member states within the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization composed of 30 member states) must increase their military burden. Challenges to Europe's security are imminent without the reconciliation between Russia and the West. Therefore, the strategic partnership between China and Russia may test the U.S. grand strategy both geographically and geopolitically—even if China and Russia are not formal allies.

○ Recent studies have shown that the U.S. of the West cannot easily win a war against great powers under certain scenarios. Those scenarios include a war against Russia to defend the Baltic States and a hypothetical war against China to defend Taiwan. China and Russia may simultaneously or sequentially attack and force the U.S. to face two fronts of great powers.

○ The Biden administration has been dealing with China and Russia with a dual-track approach, which promotes cooperation with China and Russia in areas of global health and climate change while counterattacking and repelling any attacks from them. For the Biden administration to successfully implement the dual-track approach, it has to rely on its network of allies, including the Transatlantic Partnership.

○ This brief looks at (i) the early stages of strategic relations between the two countries in the 1990s; (ii) the rise of China in the 21st century and the strategic relations with China; (iii) Europe's security challenges and China-Russia relations in the 21st century; (iv) 21st Century Asia-Pacific security challenges and China-Russia relations; (v) evaluation and prospects. For this brief had to cover a broad topic, it had to leave many major details for future research.

※ Translator’s note: This is a third party’s unofficial translation of the original paper that was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper.

※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.