The Geopolitical Conflict between the United States and Russia over Ukraine: Causes, Characteristics, and Implications

​

Hong Wansuk 

(evan@hufs.ac.kr) 

Head of Russian & CIS Studies,

Dean of Graduate School of International and Area Studies, 

Hankuk Academy of Foreign Studies 

​Executive Summary 

■ Ukraine is a geopolitically fault zone where Eurasian forces fluctuate

○ A U.S. strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski has categorized Ukraine as a pivot state that causes dynamic relationship and power changes of states and other actors involved.

○ As a strategic hub located between "the East" (Russia) and "the West" (the U.S. and the European Union), Ukraine is capable of making a difference in Eurasia's power map with its diplomatic choices. Such is particularly possible due to Ukraine's possession of the largest territory in Europe, with a population of over 44 million, and its vast underground resources and solid agricultural and industrial productivity.

○ For these reasons, Ukraine has become an important factor inshaping the new political landscape in Europe and beyond—Eurasia—amid the expansion of the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

■ Ukraine's military-security discontinuity is a product of fierce power struggles between the United States and Russia

○ Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has tried to absorb the power vacuum belt eastward with NATO, while Russia has tried to maintain its traditional sphere of influence and maintain the status quo.

○ The main reason for the struggle can be described as that Ukraine is a geopolitical and economic meridian point that the U.S. and Russia cannot give up.

○ If Eurasia is to be managed and controlled stably, it must be included in its own territory.

○ Overall, this explains why and how Ukraine has become the biggest and the fiercest battlefield place for the U.S. and Russian struggle for Eurasian hegemony.

■ With Ukraine at the forefront, the struggle between the U.S. and Russia is a matter of hostile coexistence

○ The confrontation between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine is ostensibly a hegemony struggle. However, the confrontation also contains other strategic intentions.

○ In short, the U.S. and Russia are artificially confronting Ukraine to try to gain geopolitical goals; namely, there is an "undercurrent."

■ The Real political intention of the U.S. is to stimulate Russia

○ The Biden administration's policy of blocking Russia is aimed at blocking Kremlin's imperial ambition to recover and restore its geopolitical importance. However, this cannot and does not fully describe the whole picture.

○ Behind the ostensible intentions, there is Washington's multi-dimensional and high-dimensional strategy of maintaining overwhelming hegemony, for the national interests of the U.S.

○ For example, restoring the EU and NATO's weakened cohesion during the Trump administration through the escalating security crisis in Europe, taming the EU that is seeking to strengthen its diplomatic and security autonomy, strengthening of control over Germany and France in particular, providing a way out for the U.S. military complexes, expanding the export market of the U.S. share of European natural gas and the economic decoupling between Russia and the EU, and restoring the Biden administration's low approval rating are the game-changers.

■ Real political intentions of raising military tensions in Russia

○ Putin's Russia has first surrounded Ukraine and then even heightened military tension not entirely for the U.S.-led blockade of NATO's eastward movement.

○ Russia's strategic threats in Ukraine cannot be described in a simple manner as it contains multi-layered and complex reasons.

○ To name a few as examples, there is Russia's ambition to re-expand. Then, there is the intention to restore Russky's wounded reconstruction of global pride. Relieving fatigue from Putin's long-term rule of power must be included as well. Russia is attracting the U.S. to the diplomatic table and showing off its geopolitical presence that may be able to hold China in check and separate the U.S. from the EU. Furthermore, while holding China, the U.S., and the EU in check, Russia is able to disintegrate the EU. Also, Russia's movement may prevent Ukraine from committing rash actions.

■ The lessons and suggestions of the Ukraine incident in 2021 can be explained in many ways, but the following three factors must be emphasized.

○ For its foreign and security policies, the U.S. had prioritized dealing with Europe. Therefore, the peace process on the Korean Peninsula has lost momentum.

○ South Korea should foremost strengthen itself so that it will not be swayed by the overwhelming power of neighboring powers and/or infringe on national security and national interests.

○ The incumbent South Korean government should strengthen practical diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula that prioritizes national interests without favoring certain actors.

※ Translator’s  note:  This  is  a  third  party’s  unofficial  translation  of  the  original  paper which  was  written  in  Korean.  All  references  should  be  made  to  the  original  paper. 

※ This  article  is  written  based  on  the  author’s  personal  opinions  and  does  not  reflect  the views  of  the  Sejong  Institute.​