Evaluation of the Taiwan Strait Tension in the wake of the recent Ukraine crisis

Lee Dongmin, Chung Jae-hung

(dongmin.sean.lee@gmail.com, jameschung@sejong.org)

Associate Professor, Dankook University

Research Fellow, the Sejong Institute​ 

Executive Summary

■ Issues Raised

○ In recent years, international concerns about the Taiwan Strait have been spreading since Russia invaded Ukraine. Although the driving factor for China to take immediately military action against Taiwan is slim, if the U.S.-China strategic competition continues to deteriorate after the 20th Party Congress to be held in Beijing in the second half of 2022, there may be Beijing's attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

■ Recent evaluation and recognition of the Taiwan Strait in China

○ China's Xi Jinping leadership recognizes five regions as the possible global geopolitical flash points: 1. Ukraine 2. Afghanistan 3. the South China Sea 4. the Taiwan Strait 5. the Korean Peninsula. The Chinese government views conflicts are highly likely if not managed properly. Particularly, Beijing recognizes Taiwan as a part of China and is taking the most active action in Taiwan among the five geopolitical points of conflict.

■ The U.S. view of One China 

○ The United States has traditionally adhered to 'One China Policy'. The U.S. maintains strategic ambiguity on the Taiwan Strait issue for two strategic purposes: the first is to maintain a peaceful status quo within the region, and the second is to maintain a net function to maintain cooperative relations with both China and Taiwan.

■ China's military intentions on the Taiwan Strait

○ After the Ukraine crisis, despite the U.S.'s hardline stance, China is unlikely to make concessions or step down on the Taiwan issue, its key interest. Instead, China is preparing for every situation by increasing its defense spending and revising its domestic laws.

■ Taiwan Strait, China's military capabilities in case of emergency

○ If tension breakout, China is expected to aggressively launch military actions against U.S. air bases and U.S. bases in the western Pacific along with aircraft carriers and battle ships entering the waters near China. Beijing may consider relying on their asymmetric nuclear and missile forces that China has prepared for more than 20 years in case a military clash occurs in the Taiwan Strait. On the other hand, if China fails to end the war quickly and leads to a long-term, escalated war, as seen in the case of Ukraine, it will suffer from diplomatic, economic and military pressure from the international community along with Taiwan's counterattack. 

■ Conclusions and recommendations

○ The possibility of military conflict is increasing because both the U.S. and China have different positions on the Taiwan Strait. From the U.S. standpoint, China's attempt to change the status quo is unacceptable, and from China's standpoint, Taiwan's independence is politically unacceptable.

○ Nevertheless, neither the U.S. nor China wants a military clash in the region. In order to strengthen crisis management and confidence building measures (CBM) to cope with the crisis in the Taiwan Strait, active communication channels between South Korea, the U.S., and experts from South Korea and China are expected.​