Evaluation and Tasks of the Korea-U.S.-Japan Bilateral and Three-Party Summit in 2023 

Hyun-ik Hong

Hyunik@sejong.org

Senior Research Fellow

The Sejong Institute

■ Addressing an Issue

❍ This paper reviews the Korea-U.S. summit on April 26, the Korea-Japan summit on May 7, and the Korea-Japan summit in Hiroshima on May 21 to evaluate the national strategic goals of national security, economic development, peaceful unification, and suggests how to maximize Korea's national interest, which is at a brink of two power's confrontation, amid the intensifying New Cold War in Northeast Asia.

❍ It seeks policy measures to strengthen Korea-U.S. relations and to ensure nuclear deterrence against North Korea, promote economic interest, ensure peace and stability along with preventing disadvantages from relations with China and Russia, and resolve North Korean nuclear issue, establishing a peace regime, and advance to peaceful unification

■ Performance Evaluation of the Korea-U.S. Summit

❍ President Yoon actively emphasized freedom and human rights to Americans during state events, talks, and speeches in Washington to strengthen trust between the leaders of South Korea and the United States and enhance consensus between the two countries.

❍ Two leaders have agreed on the establishment of a Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and the deployment of strategic nuclear submarines to strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence for South Korea. However, North Korea's nuclear threat is specific and realistic, whereas the U.S. guarantee for South Korea is vague, requiring further evaluations and improvements to effectively implement its contents in the future for the reliable operation of NCG.

❍ It is regrettable that President Yoon did not make full use of the opportunity to ask the U.S. lawmakers to ease the difficulties of Korean semiconductor, electric vehicle, and battery companies in the U.S. market.

■ Performance Evaluation of the Korea-Japan Summit

❍ Due to worsening public opinion over the concessionary decision by President Yoon for normalization of Korea-Japan relation and President Biden's appraisal to President Yoon to strengthen security cooperation with South Korea for extended deterrence, Prime Minister Kishida's early visit to Korea have made a recovery on Shuttle Diplomacy on May 7th

❍ Prime Minister Kishida mentioned at a press conference, "I myself was heartbroken that many people experienced very painful and sad moments in the harsh environment at the time," but failed to meet the expectations of the Korean people.

❍ Two leaders agreed to strengthen security cooperation between South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., and Prime Minister Kishida invited the Fukushima nuclear power plant's contaminated water inspection team, but as the samples cannot be collected, it might assist the justification of Japan's discharge of contaminated water.

■ Performance Evaluation of Hiroshima Korea-Japan and Korea-U.S.-Japan Summit

❍ The Korea-Japan and Korea-U.S.-Japan summits were held on May 21, 2023, with the G7 Hiroshima summit.

❍ It is meant to sum up the first year of the Yoon Administration's diplomatic policy, focusing on value diplomacy and the U.S. and Japan.

❍ Two leaders of Korea and Japan agreed to strengthen cooperation between the two countries in the global task and promote cooperation in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) after a joint tribute to the monument for Korean atomic bomb victims in Hiroshima Peace Park.

❍ The leaders from the three countries discussed methods to cooperate against North Korea's illegal nuclear and missile threats, economic security, and support each country's Indo-Pacific strategies. President Biden has decided to invite the leaders of South Korea and Japan to Washington D.C. to hold a trilateral summit this year.

■ Future Tasks and Korea's Response Plan

❍ Although nuclear deterrence against North Korea has been fortified, internalization of deterrence still remains a challenge, North Korea's nuclear and missile development continues, and South Korea's relations with China and Russia now have conflict elements in both structure and content than before.

❍ It is desirable to support the U.S. advocates for freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rules of law, but it is believed that advocating such terms by ourselves must be reconsidered. It is wise to have the most amicable relationship with China and Russia while also promoting cooperation with the U.S. and Japan through careful and wise diplomacy.

❍ The Washington Declaration is vague, requiring the NCG to become an optimal organization, permanentized, and guaranteed to curb expansion to North Korea through the substantial operation.

❍ North Korea may launch local provocation with conventional military force, similar to the sinking of the Cheonan and the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island, targeting South Korea's loopholes, requiring thorough preparation. Hence, it is also required to conduct diplomacy to prevent a crisis by managing North Korea's motive for provocation.

❍ China is South Korea's largest trading partner, but also North Korea's most influential neighbor and a powerful country that will actively intervene in future security issues on the Korean Peninsula. If it is difficult for leaders to visit each other's country in the short term, it may be an alternative to push for Korea-Japan-China trilateral summit, which all three countries wanted to hold, and create an atmosphere, conduct a mutual visit between the two countries.

❍ Support for Ukraine should be strengthened during a consultation with the U.S., but careful attention must be made to prevent Korea-Russia relations to worsen into a difficult state to recover. It is necessary to secure a chance for the recovery of Korea-Russia relations as soon as possible.

❍ The U.S. seeks to establish a trilateral missile defense and nuclear umbrella consultative body between South Korea, and Japan, and both countries are likely to strengthen their check on China and Russia by giving South Korea the role of frontline actor. Hence, China and Russia are also likely to recognize South Korea as a vanguard against China and Russia on behalf of the U.S. and Japan due to geopolitical characteristics.

❍ South Korea's Electric Vehicle battery manufacturers should persuade the U.S. to hold on to subsidies until they diversify their key mineral imports.

❍ The government should persuade the U.S. to separate memory and non-memory semiconductors and regulate only non-memory semiconductors. In addition, the postponement of U.S. regulation to Korean semiconductor companies in China will end in October this year, and an extension to such measures must be obtained.​