Full-Scale Strategic Economic Security Cooperation between China and Russia and its limitations in the period of the emergence of a new international order

Jaehung Chung

jameschung@sejong.org​

Director of Center for Chinese Studies

Dongmin Lee

dongmin.sean.lee@sejong.org​

Professor at Dankook University

❍ ​Discussions about the rapid shift of international order is spreading. The rise of conflict and confrontation is happening due to the absence of a hegemonic state based on a power-based order. In this context, the U.S.-led Liberal International Order will face the end, and the emergence of a multipolar system is expected to make its appearance. In fact, many countries in Europe argue and are preparing for the upcoming multipolar system.

❍ ​The biggest challenge of the Liberal International Order is the close relationship between China and Russia in recent years. Even though the arms support is not conducted, based on economic relations with China, Russia holds a foundation to continue war capabilities in Ukraine. Furthermore, based on the strategic cooperation between the 2 countries, they are expanding their influence to the Global South, and some countries are explicitly disclosing their anti-Western stands, entering a time of trouble.

❍ ​Since the last 20th Party Congress, the most important change in Xi Jinping's third-term leadership is the change in foreign policy; which is to establish multipolar and democratized international order in close solidarity with the BRICS and Global South countries, including Russia, without embracing the U.S and West-led Liberal International Order.

❍ ​Through strategic economic-security cooperation with Russia, Xi Jinping's third-term leadership is pushing for the normalization of Saudi-Iran relations, proposing a peace treaty to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, stressing the Israeli-Palestinian plan with a two-state solution, inviting Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou to visit China, suggesting a third united front, and proposing a new regional six-party talks to resolve the Korean Peninsula issue.

❍ Recently, Xi Jinping's third-term leadership criticized the Dollar as a weapon utilized as a powerful weapon by U.S. and Western-centered Liberal International Order to impose economic sanctions on some anti-American or anti-Western countries and began to actively promote the emphasis on de-dollarization and the establishment of a new level of BRICS payment currency.

❍ Amid the rapid rise in the atmosphere of the New Cold War since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, U.S.-China relations have also seen a full-fledged confrontation between the democratic bloc and the authoritarian(socialism) bloc on an omnidirectional level, centered on China (Russia) and the United States (Western countries), beyond national conflicts in terms of economy, technology, and ideology.

❍ Currently, the leaders of China and Russia recognize and approach the Middle East crisis that followed the war in Ukraine as a representation of a shift in the international order over global hegemony between the U.S.-NATO-centered Western bloc and the emerging Chinese bloc.

❍ Recently, China and Russia have shown close strategic cooperation and communication on the issues of Ukraine in the west of Eurasia, the Middle East in the middle, the Korean Peninsula, and Taiwan issue in the east. In order to realize a multipolar international order, China's One Belt, One Road strategy and Russia's Eurasian integration plan have expanded economic cooperation.

❍ China and Russia are significantly expanding political-economic-security solidarity and cooperation with Global South countries such as BRICS, SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and South America, requiring strategic countermeasures to come up with new challenges

❍ It is important to wait and see whether a new world order led by China and Russia can be distinguished. This is closely related to China's domestic political problems and changes in U.S.-China relations. The more the US continues to pursue a hard-line policy toward China, the closer the China-Russia relationship will likely be strengthened. The most important variable in international politics in the future is the US-China-Russia trilateral relationship.

❍ The U.S.-led Liberal International Order can be maintained for three reasons: the first is that the U.S. is attempting to build a new order that encompasses the international community. Second, genuine cooperation due to strategic distrust between China and Russia, limiting their cooperation, and third, the restoration of U.S.-China relations due to U.S. foreign policy coordination will inevitably weaken China-Russia relations.

❍ In this context, it is suggested that our countermeasures should be as follows. New alternatives can be sought in terms of foreign, economic, and military policy. First, it is suggested that Korea contributes to maintaining the expansion of relations with Global South countries in cooperation with the international community amid fundamental readjustment of U.S. foreign policy. Second, the international community, including the United States is trying to significantly expand the market with China regardless of strategic distrust, requiring Korea's response toward this readjustment. Third, cooperation between the United States and China is beneficial to Korea, and it is necessary to adapt to this and help the two countries build a true Liberal International Order. If a China and Russia-based world order emerges, it only means the emergence of an age of uncertainty.