Japan's Population Crisis and Implications: Building a National Vision for the Future Premised on Population Decline

Mi Ae Jung

Visiting Research Fellow

Sejong Institute

majung21@sejong.org

​■​ Korea is facing a population security crisis

❍​ Population security is an important security issue along with military security, diplomatic security, economic security, and food security, and it is important enough to determine the continuation of a society. However, Korea is currently facing a population security crisis due to a low birthrate and an aging population.

❍​ Korea's total fertility rate is expected to be 0.72% in 2023, the lowest in the world, and the aging rate is the highest in the world, with more than 20% of the population expected to be 65 and older by 2025.

​■​ Japan's demographics and measures to address the declining birthrate and aging population

❍ Japan has entered a full-fledged "Depopulation Era" with a declining population year by year, since 2008, and Japan's population is expected to be below 90 million in 2070 and about 63 million in 2100, about half the current number.

❍ Since the so-called "1.57 shock" in 1990, Japan has implemented various birth control measures, including the Angel Plan, to prevent the birth rate from falling further.

  - From April 1, 2023, Japan established the 'Child and Family Agency' as the headquarters for child-related policies, including pregnancy, childbirth, childcare support, and children's rights. This means that Japan's birthrate reduction measures have shifted from promoting the birth rate to focusing on the "happiness" of children once they are born.

❍ Japan has one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world, with those aged 65 and older accounting for 29.0% of the country's population in 2022. In preparation for the growing number of elderly people needing nursing and care, The Gold Plan, New Gold Plan, and Gold Plan 21, which focus on expanding the workforce have been in place since 1989, and the Nursing Care Insurance System has been in effect since 2000. Since 2008, Japan has been accepting nurse and care worker candidates from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

❍ At the end of 2022, the number of foreign residents in Japan exceeded 3 million for the first time, accounting for 2.46% of the total population.

In response to the labor shortage caused by a declining population, Japan has been actively accepting foreigners in professional and technical fields since April 2019, when it established the "Specified Skilled Worker" status of residence, which allows permanent stay and invitation of family members.

​■​ Private sector proposals for Japan's national vision based on the premise of population decline

❍ Established in June 2022, the Reiwa Rincho(令和臨調), released the first installment of "Facing the Demographic Crisis", proposals for the future of Japanese society in June 2023.

 - The first installment of the proposal included the rapid population decline cannot be halted by birth control measures alone, and that "Japanese society should be made more open so that people from different parts of the world can work together and learn from each other."

❍ The Population Strategy Meeting, which was launched in July 2023, released the 'Population Vision 2100' in January 2024, and recommended a stabilization strategy to maintain a population of 80 million by 2100, and a strengthening strategy to build a society that is rich in diversity and has the capacity for growth even with small population size.

​■​ Implications and Recommendations 

❍ Population issues are a matter of national vision on which the fate of the nation depends, a matter of "quality of life" for all members of society, and a matter of human rights for children, women, the elderly, and socially vulnerable groups including foreign workers.

❍ Whereas, as recommended by Japan's Reiwa Rincho(令和臨調), Population Strategy Meeting, we, South Korea should realistically anticipate the country's future population targets and continue to make policy efforts toward a declining birthrate, while at the same time, We need to start creating a national vision based on the premise of declining population.

❍ Policies for declining population rates and measures for aging differ in target, direction, and content. Separate approaches are needed, rather than lumping them together under the Committee on Low Birthrate and Aging Society.

❍ The declining birthrate, aging, population decline, and acceptance of foreign workers are challenges for both Japan and South Korea, so it is necessary to strengthen policy cooperation by seeking joint solutions.​