U.S.-China Strategy and Issues Related to Taiwan

Jungsup Kim

Vice President of Sejong Institute

jungsupkim@sejong.org

■​ The geopolitical implications of Taiwan's geographic location make the Taiwan Strait a crucial testing ground for U.S.-China competition. The psychological and perceptual importance of the credibility of U.S. commitments in East Asia.

❍ The increase of eroding tacit consensus and trust in the status quo for Taiwan is a cause for concern. Both the U.S. and China are engaged in a deterrence race, driven by mutual fear of changes in the status quo.

❍ Key to the U.S. strategy is "deterrence and limited war" through building an anti-China network, i.e., maintaining a balance of power in favor of the U.S. in East Asia and the Western Pacific while preparing for limited war in case of failure in deterring China.

❍ China, on the other hand, is focused on a strategy of "coercion" that seeks to slowly shift the balance of power to prevent individual countries from resisting Beijing's intentions.

■​ Results of War Scenario and War Game

❍ If a war over the Taiwan Strait were to break out, the path would be one of deterrence failure (War in Ukraine), unintended escalation of war (World War I), or the pressure of preventive war (Pacific War).

❍ Four main scenarios of military conflict: 1) missile attack, 2) island capture, 3) naval blockade, and 4) full-scale invasion.

❍ There are many different wargame outcomes for the war over the Taiwan Strait depending on a combination of variables including failed invasion, stalemate, and success. The common thread is that neither the U.S. nor the PRC can expect an easy victory and that the war would be a protracted war.

■​ Tragic conflict or a geopolitical compromise?

❍ The U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan will eventually become a "contest of will". Which faction is to endure more pain and cost will determine the flow of the war.

❍ Unlike the U.S.-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War, the U.S.-China rivalry is more volatile due to the ambiguity of power and the unreliability of extended deterrence in the absence of a line of demarcation.

❍ Some international political realism suggests a geopolitical negotiation with China. Believing that concessions on Taiwan and the South China Sea will be enough to prevent China's rise to Asian dominance. (2nd Yalta)

❍ On the other hand, there are views that emphasize a co-evolving relationship, not a division of power, but an acceptance of the presence and role of the U.S.-China counterpart. Improvising China's slowing growth and the potential outcome of a stable great power relationship.

■​ Examining issues related to the Taiwan Strait and options for South Korea

❍ The status quo is the only option for the time being on the Taiwan issue. A balanced approach is needed to deter both Beijing and Taipei from crossing their respective lines and to reassure both sides.

❍ However, as a Taiwan-like situation cannot be ruled out, South Korea needs to examine the issues in advance to determine how and at what level to intervene.

❍ There are three main questions that arise in this regard. (1) What are the implications for the balance of power in East Asia and South Korea in the event of Taiwan's reunification with China? (2) Is South Korea's involvement inevitable? What are the alliance's mutual aid obligations and mutual aid obligations of the alliance and the desirable role of South Korea?

❍ ​In order to avoid being overwhelmed by the situation during a crisis, it is necessary to consider the issues and options related to a Taiwan-like event from the perspective of South Korea's national interests in advance.​