Assessing North Korea's policies in the first half of 2024: Focusing on 10th plenary session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea

Eun-ju Choi

Research Fellow

ej0717@sejong.org

■​ ​The 10th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea was held.

❍ North Korea held an expanded meeting for four days from June 28 to July 1, 2024, to evaluate the implementation of major policies in the first half of 2024 and discuss major policies for the second half of the year.

❍ The agenda of the Plenum consisted of five items: △evaluation of the implementation of major policies in the first half of 2024 business plans for the second half of the year △measures to improve the business methods and attitudes of cadres △measures to strengthen business discipline in important sectors △measures to evaluate and improve the judicial system, △organizational issues.

❍ At the Plenum, General Secretary Kim Jong Un delivered an important speech (“Decision”) as a conclusion to the first agenda item and discussion, and the press release was only partially disclosed, as the content of the speech was limited to domestic sectors such as the economy.

■​ ​Evaluation of economic policy implementation performance in the first half of the year  

❍ North Korea's policy achievements in the first half of the year are mainly in the economic sector, focusing on the 20x10 Regional Development Policy, basic industry, and agriculture, and the DPRK claims that most of them have either fulfilled their plans for the first half of the year or have laid the foundation for a positive outlook for the second half of the year.

❍ According to follow-up reports, North Korea's major construction projects, such as housing construction, are progressing across the country, and the government is making progress in building infrastructure to provide food for the population, such as the construction of greenhouse farms and chicken farms, as well as completing factories to supply school uniforms and shoes.

❍ However, some challenges need to be addressed, such as the recent changes in the grain distribution system, which may put an economic burden on residents as grain prices in the market are showing an upward trend, and the fact that the number of construction projects is increasing every year, revealing problems such as the possibility of poor construction and formal management oversight.

■​ ​Continuation of the policy framework and strengthening legal control 

❍ ​The second half of the year's projects announcement from the Plenum maintained the existing policy framework emphasizing the need to continue the phased implementation of long-term strategies, calling for the implementation of plans for the maintenance and reinforcement strategy and prioritized construction projects that should be finalized within this year, which is the fourth year of North Korea's five-year economic development plan.

❍ About the role of the cabinet, it is important to note that Kim Jong-un's speech raised the issue of improving economic management methods, which he has rarely mentioned since 2020, and it will be interesting to see whether the financial management methods promoted by Kim Jong-un's rise to power will continue in the direction they have been in the past, as this will determine the direction of North Korea's mid-to-long-term economical operation.

❍ North Korea has emphasized legalization in the implementation of major party and state policies, and the plenary session of the Workers' Party Congress held separate sessions to discuss ways to improve cadres' business practices and improve and develop the judicial system, indicating that North Korea will continue the trend of strengthening the function and role of the law since Kim Jong Un took office.

■ Strengthening the expansion of external relations

❍ Although the press release of the Plenum did not specifically issue external relations, it is worth noting that the DPRK has been conducting the most active external relations program in recent years in the first half of this year, and that the expansion of external economic exchanges will have a major impact on whether the policy objective announced at the Plenum will be achieved.

❍ Relations with China have remained close since 2018 and are expected to be active in the economic sphere, particularly in trade and tourism, but the level and pace will be determined by both internal and external factors, given the designation of 2024 Comradeship between North Korea and China, the second half of the year may be more active than the first half in terms of achieving extended goals.

❍ Relations with Russia are closer than ever, with Russian President Putin's visit to Pyongyang in June and the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which, if followed up in the second half of the year, will be positive for North Korea's economic policy implementation.

■ Outlook and implications for the second half of the year

❍ In the second half of the year, North Korea is expected to focus internally on implementing the short- and long-term tasks in the economic sector raised by the Plenum from the Party Central Committee and the 8th Party Congress, while there are few downward pressures on economic activity, specific performance will be influenced by the level and pace of expansion in the external economic sector.

❍ North Korea's external activities in the first half of 2024 are focused on Russia and China, and in the second half of the year, North Korea will continue to focus on its relations with China and Russia, taking full advantage of the favorable strategic environment for its survival and development at the international level to address its domestic challenges.

❍ North Korea has also been making moves to expand its diplomatic space, such as establishing working contacts with Japan and disclosing its stance on U.S. Presidential candidate Trump's North Korea policy, so the South Korean government needs to keep a wide range of open possibilities and prepare countermeasures while paying close attention to the movements of neighboring countries around the Korean Peninsula, even if they do not lead to realistic outcomes such as North Korea improving relations with the United States and Japan.

❍ North Korea did not make any specific mention of the situation on the Korean Peninsula at the plenary session, but as in the first half of the year, it is expected to continue its hardline policy toward South Korea and institutionalize its reunification policy, so the South Korean government should closely monitor North Korea's military and diplomatic activities, as well as those of its neighbors, and explore policies to gain leverage on North Korea through improved relations with China and Russia as well as strengthened cooperation with the United States and Japan to avoid losing the initiative on the Korean Peninsula.​